Owl is a planning tool that uses a linear programming optimization algorithm to provide guidance on retirement decisions. There are a few ways to run Owl.
-
Run Owl directly on the Streamlit Community Server at owlplanner.streamlit.app.
-
Run locally on your computer using a Docker image. Follow these instructions for this option.
-
Run locally on your computer using Python code and libraries. Follow these instructions to install Owl from the source code and run it on your computer.
This package is a retirement modeling framework for exploring the sensitivity of retirement financial decisions. Strictly speaking, it is not a planning tool, but more an environment for exploring what if scenarios. It provides different realizations of a financial strategy through the rigorous mathematical optimization of relevant decision variables. Two major objective goals can be set: either maximize net spending, or after-tax bequest under various constraints. Look at Basic capabilities below for more detail.
One can certainly have a savings plan, but due to the volatility of financial investments, it is impossible to have a certain asset earnings plan. This does not mean one cannot make decisions. These decisions need to be guided with an understanding of the sensitivity of the parameters. This is exactly where this tool fits it. Given your savings capabilities and spending desires, it can generate different future realizations of your strategy under different market assumptions, helping to better understand your financial situation.
Disclaimers: I am not a financial planner. You make your own decisions. This program comes with no guarantee. Use at your own risk.
More disclaimers: While some output of the code has been verified with other approaches, this code is still under development and I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the results. Use at your own risk.
The goal of Owl is to create a free and open-source ecosystem that has cutting-edge optimization capabilities, allowing for the next generation of Python-literate retirees to experiment with their own financial future while providing a codebase where they can learn and contribute. There are and were good retirement optimizers in the recent past, but the vast majority of them are either proprietary platforms collecting your data, or academic papers that share the results without really sharing the details of the underlying mathematical models. The algorithms in Owl rely on the open-source HiGHS linear programming solver. The complete formulation and detailed description of the underlying mathematical model can be found here.
It is anticipated that most end users will use Owl through the graphical interface either at owlplanner.streamlit.app or installed on their own computer. The underlying Python package can also be used directly through Python scripts or a Jupyter Notebook as described here.
Not every retirement decision strategy can be framed as an easy-to-solve optimization problem. In particular, if one is interested in comparing different withdrawal strategies, FI Calc is an elegant application that addresses this need. If, however, you also want to optimize spending, bequest, and Roth conversions, with an approach also considering Medicare and federal income tax over the next few years, then Owl is definitely a tool that can help guide your decisions.
Owl can optimize for either maximum net spending under the constraint of a given bequest (which can be zero), or maximize the after-tax value of a bequest under the constraint of a desired net spending profile, and under the assumption of a heirs marginal tax rate. Roth conversions are also considered, subject to an optional maximum conversion amount, and optimized to suit the goals of the selected objective function. All calculations are indexed for inflation, which is either provided as a fixed rate, or through historical values, as are all other rates used for the calculations. These rates can be used for backtesting different scenarios by choosing historical rates, or by choosing historical average rates over a historical year range, or what I coined "histochastic" rates which are generated using the statistical distribution of observed historical rates.
Portfolios available for experimenting include assets from the S&P 500, Corporate Bonds Baa, Treasury 10-y Notes, and cash assets assumed to just follow inflation which is represented by the Consumer Price Index. Other asset classes can easily be added, but would add complexity while only providing diminishing insights. Historical data used are from Aswath Damodaran at the Stern School of Business. Asset allocations are selected for the duration of the plan, and these can glide linearly or along a configurable s-curve over the lifespan of the individual.
Spending profiles are adjusted for inflation, and so are all other indexable quantities. Proflies can be flat or follow a smile curve which is also adjustable through two simple parameters.
Available rates are from 1928 to last year and can be used to test historical performance. Fixed rates can also be provided, as well as histochastic rates, which are generated using the statistical characteristics (means and covariance matrix) of a selected historical year range. Pure stochastic rates can also be generated if the user provides means, volatility (expressed as standard deviation), and optionally the correlations between the different assets return rates provided as a matrix, or a list of the off-diagonal elements (see documentation for details). Average rates calculated over a historical data period can also be chosen.
Monte Carlo simulations capabilities are included and provide a probability of success and a histogram of outcomes. These simulations can be used for either determining the probability distribution of the maximum net spending amount under the constraint of a desired bequest, or the probability distribution of the maximum bequest under the constraint of a desired net spending amount. Unlike discrete-event simulators, Owl uses an optimization algorithm for every new scenario, which results in more calculations being performed. As a result, the number of cases to be considered should be kept to a reasonable number. For a few hundred cases, a few minutes of calculations can provide very good estimates and reliable probability distributions.
Optimizing each solution is more representative than event-base simulators in the sense that optimal solutions will naturally adjust to the return scenarios being considered. This is more realistic as retirees would certainly re-evaluate their expectations under severe market drops or gains. This optimal approach provides a net benefit over event-based simulators, which maintain a distribution strategy either fixed, or within guardrails for capturing the retirees' reactions to the market.
Basic input parameters can be entered through the user interface while optional additional time series can be read from an Excel spreadsheet that contains future wages, contributions to savings accounts, and planned big-ticket items such as the purchase of a lake house, the sale of a boat, large gifts, or inheritance.
Three types of savings accounts are considered: taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-exempt, which are all tracked separately for married individuals. Asset transition to the surviving spouse is done according to beneficiary fractions for each type of savings account. Tax status covers married filing jointly and single, depending on the number of individuals reported.
Medicare and IRMAA calculations are performed through a self-consistent loop on cash flow constraints. Future values are simple projections of current values with the assumed inflation rates.
Owl is work in progress. At the current time:
- Only the US federal income tax is considered (and minimized through the optimization algorithm). Head of household filing status has not been added but can easily be.
- Required minimum distributions are calculated, but tables for spouses more than 10 years apart are not included. These cases are detected and will generate an error message.
- Social security rule for surviving spouse assumes that benefits were taken at full retirement age.
- Current version has no optimization of asset allocations between individuals and/or types of savings accounts. If there is interest, that could be added in the future.
- In the current implementation, social securiy is always taxed at 85%.
- Medicare calculations are done through a self-consistent loop. This means that the Medicare premiums are calculated after an initial solution is generated, and then a new solution is re-generated with these premiums as a constraint. In some situations, when the income (MAGI) is near an IRMAA bracket, oscillatory solutions can arise. While the solutions generated are very close to one another, Owl will pick the smallest solution for being conservative.
- Part D is not included in the IRMAA calculations. Being considerably more significant, only Part B is taken into account.
- Future tax brackets are pure speculations derived from the little we know now and projected to the next 30 years. Your guesses are as good as mine.
The solution from an optimization algorithm has only two states: feasible and infeasible. Therefore, unlike event-driven simulators that can tell you that your distribution strategy runs out of money in year 20, an optimization-based solver can only tell you that a solution does or does not exist for the plan being considered. Examples of infeasible solutions include requesting a bequeathed estate value too large for the savings assets to support, even with zero net spending basis, or maximizing the bequest subject to a net spending basis that is already too large for the savings assets to support, even with no estate being left.
- Documentation for the app user interface is available from the interface itself.
- Installation guide and software requirements can be found here.
- User guide for the underlying Python package as used in a Jupyter notebook can be found here.
- Historical rates from Aswath Damodaran
- Image from freepik
- Optimization solver from HiGHS
- Streamlit Community Cloud Streamlit
- Contributors: Josh ([email protected]) for Docker image code
Copyright © 2024 - Martin-D. Lacasse
Disclaimers: I am not a financial planner. You make your own decisions. This program comes with no guarantee. Use at your own risk.
