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Analyzing and forecasting crime in Mexico (Project done as part of a course at UChicago - Winter 2017)

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Analyzing the Crime Rate of Mexico

In this project (as part of a course called Computer Science with Applications II offered at UChicago), we created a website that visualizes the rate of crime in different states in Mexico. We also used machine learning technique (LASSO) to predict the crime rate in those states.

The following sections describe what each of the file in this repository does. If you want to run the program, please go to /frontend/Instructions_frontend.txt. You'll be asked to deploy the project on Flask, a web framework that creates web applications in Python.


This is a README of the files attached with this project:

SUMMARY

The repository has the following components:

Project proposal and presentation
Data
Backend
Frontend

PROJECT PROPOSAL AND PRESENTATION

  • CS122-Project_Super Forecasters.docx: Project Proposal
  • Final-Presentation_2.pptx: Final presentation of the project in the winter quarter 2017
  • Super-Forecasters-Pitch2.pptx: First presentation of the project in the winter quarter 2017

DATA:

  • MINI_DB: Database composed of 7 tables
  • raw_csv: where the csv's of the Mexican Ministry of Statistics are located
  • process_csv: includes csv's after they have been processed by crime_process.py and csv_process.py. Also contains csv's created by dataframe_lasso.py
  • Querys: Contains queries to query mini_db
  • create_db.sql: Schema to create and upload a sql database with the csv of process_csv (just the csv common with raw_csv).
  • db_layout.txt: File with the name of the tables and columns. Each column has the spanish name, english name and name used in the database.
  • mini_db: Sql database (.db) created by create_db.sql
  • frontend_aux: Auxiliary csv, database and schema for visualization purposes (customized for the frontend API)

BACKEND:

  • crime_process.py: Inputs mini_db/raw_csv/crime.csv and reshape it. Create mini_db/process_csv/crime.cvs. This is the file that process the predicted columns (crimes).
  • csv_process.py: Inputs mini_db/raw_csv/n.csv and reshape them. Where n are the different tables of the predictors (justice_system, education, health, etc.). Create mini_db/process_csv/n.cvs. This is the file that process the predictors (covariates) columns.
  • dataframe_lasso.py: Inputs mini_db.db creates a connection between sqlite and python3 and makes a pandas dataframe. Constructs changes and lags of the predicted columns and predictors. Drop NaN and entites where there is not complete information. Restricts the dataframe for the years 2008-2011 (where there is complete information). Outputs df_limited.csv and lists: list_dep (dependent) and list_lag (covariates).
  • lasso_model.py: Inputs the outputs of dataframe_lasso. Contruct function frontend that inputs name of the variable to predict (string) and year. Outputs: actual observations, predicted observations, coefficients of the predictiors, mean square error (mse), corr(pred,actual) and r-square of the prediction. Contruct a class where the estimations of the predictive model (lasso) are done.

FRONT END:

  • Templates folder: a folder for all the Jinja/html/CSS templates for Flask
  • Static: includes a javascript file for charts
  • Flask_frontend_crime.py: A python file with the code that connects the backend (SQL) with the frontend (Flask)

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Analyzing and forecasting crime in Mexico (Project done as part of a course at UChicago - Winter 2017)

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