Deployed app can be found here
Here is an application of Monte Carlo Simulations to try and provide insight on whether your options spreads are going to be in or out of the money. All you need to do is provide a stock ticker and your spread info and the page will provide you with a couple of different simulations telling you how likely it is for your spread to be profitable.
This page was deployed using Heroku
At the top of the page you just need to enter the ticker for the stock that you're interested in.
The page then provides you with various stats about the stock
The first simulation uses the stocks compound annual growth and annual volatility to generate it's predictions. This is useful for when you think the stock is not going to experience any drastic movements.
The second simulation boostraps the historical returns to fit a statistical distribution to forecast the stock's movement. This model is more volatile, predicting larger spikes and dips in the stock's movements.
The settings on the side of the page should be fine for most usecases but feel free to change them to see other possible results.
You should not treat any forecast provided by this page as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy. This page's predictions are based upon information that is considered reliable, but does not warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. This page is not under any obligation to update or correct any information provided.
All forecasts shown on this page are based on past performance of the stock. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This page cannot guarantee any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any prediction shown. Forecasts may fluctuate in price or value. Investors may get back less than invested. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding forecasts provided. Before acting on information, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.