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<h1 class="Header__Title">Simulating IPO Stock Data And Finding Optimal Entry/Exit Points</h1>
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<span class="DateTagBar__Item DateTagBar__Date">Posted on Wed, Apr 20, 2022</span>
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<article id="https://www.notion.so/da7b97093d0040aeaff02d5ea94ae497" class="PageRoot"><h1 id="https://www.notion.so/a8b7159eaeef49fe94861e353938c546" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Heading Heading--1"><a class="Anchor" href="#https://www.notion.so/a8b7159eaeef49fe94861e353938c546"><svg width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 16 16"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M4 9h1v1H4c-1.5 0-3-1.69-3-3.5S2.55 3 4 3h4c1.45 0 3 1.69 3 3.5 0 1.41-.91 2.72-2 3.25V8.59c.58-.45 1-1.27 1-2.09C10 5.22 8.98 4 8 4H4c-.98 0-2 1.22-2 2.5S3 9 4 9zm9-3h-1v1h1c1 0 2 1.22 2 2.5S13.98 12 13 12H9c-.98 0-2-1.22-2-2.5 0-.83.42-1.64 1-2.09V6.25c-1.09.53-2 1.84-2 3.25C6 11.31 7.55 13 9 13h4c1.45 0 3-1.69 3-3.5S14.5 6 13 6z"></path></svg></a><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Overview</span></span></h1><div id="https://www.notion.so/4fd37681b993435da75023396164ea8b" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Text"><p class="Text__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">IPOs, or Initial Public Offerings is the process of offering shares of a previously private corporation to the public. On the first 30 days, IPOs have high volatility and therefore, it is difficult to make decisions on when to enter and exit a market, or even enter the market at all. Simple python formulas that can be easily scaled up can be used to find the optimal entry/exit points within a 30 day investment horizon. Optimal entry/exit points are periods within an investment horizon that give the highest profit. </span></span></p></div><div id="https://www.notion.so/a3cbd63160f542c5a1b6b009799b382b" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Text"><p class="Text__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"></span></p></div><div id="https://www.notion.so/e6c3bd7b29534537980081a202ddda35" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--BgGray Callout"><div class="Callout__Icon"><div class="Icon">🔗</div></div><p class="Callout__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Check the </span><span class="SemanticString"><a class="SemanticString__Fragment SemanticString__Fragment--Link" href="https://github.com/RishiHub-S/Simulating_Stock_Data">source code</a></span><span class="SemanticString"> of the program on GitHub. The following details will be based on the code. </span></span></p></div><h1 id="https://www.notion.so/6d8c51ff9b594bfca172a8ae7d8ee2fb" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Heading Heading--1"><a class="Anchor" href="#https://www.notion.so/6d8c51ff9b594bfca172a8ae7d8ee2fb"><svg width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 16 16"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M4 9h1v1H4c-1.5 0-3-1.69-3-3.5S2.55 3 4 3h4c1.45 0 3 1.69 3 3.5 0 1.41-.91 2.72-2 3.25V8.59c.58-.45 1-1.27 1-2.09C10 5.22 8.98 4 8 4H4c-.98 0-2 1.22-2 2.5S3 9 4 9zm9-3h-1v1h1c1 0 2 1.22 2 2.5S13.98 12 13 12H9c-.98 0-2-1.22-2-2.5 0-.83.42-1.64 1-2.09V6.25c-1.09.53-2 1.84-2 3.25C6 11.31 7.55 13 9 13h4c1.45 0 3-1.69 3-3.5S14.5 6 13 6z"></path></svg></a><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Objective</span></span></h1><div id="https://www.notion.so/43136cfa655548669c1dea2d7bfe98fe" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Text"><p class="Text__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">The python program consists of two parts:</span></span></p></div><ol class="NumberedListWrapper"><li id="https://www.notion.so/43fc3774195c49f2a1c7cfc89b219ac8" class="NumberedList" value="1"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Generating Scalable Stock Data </span></span><ol class="NumberedListWrapper"><li id="https://www.notion.so/5429cd253d1c44adbee50fe5f654c645" class="NumberedList" value="1"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Stock Name, Day, Corresponding Day’s Price.</span></span></li></ol></li><li id="https://www.notion.so/4827a308f34549a5851f49ad07a61594" class="NumberedList" value="2"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Finding Entry/Exit Points to maximize profit.</span></span></li></ol><h1 id="https://www.notion.so/f7b04757a0f9491ba09bd7cebd91ff6e" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Heading Heading--1"><a class="Anchor" href="#https://www.notion.so/f7b04757a0f9491ba09bd7cebd91ff6e"><svg width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 16 16"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M4 9h1v1H4c-1.5 0-3-1.69-3-3.5S2.55 3 4 3h4c1.45 0 3 1.69 3 3.5 0 1.41-.91 2.72-2 3.25V8.59c.58-.45 1-1.27 1-2.09C10 5.22 8.98 4 8 4H4c-.98 0-2 1.22-2 2.5S3 9 4 9zm9-3h-1v1h1c1 0 2 1.22 2 2.5S13.98 12 13 12H9c-.98 0-2-1.22-2-2.5 0-.83.42-1.64 1-2.09V6.25c-1.09.53-2 1.84-2 3.25C6 11.31 7.55 13 9 13h4c1.45 0 3-1.69 3-3.5S14.5 6 13 6z"></path></svg></a><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Assumptions:</span></span></h1><ol class="NumberedListWrapper"><li id="https://www.notion.so/ebb1114cb4864db499119261b7210168" class="NumberedList" value="1"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">One cannot exit without entering the market.</span></span></li><li id="https://www.notion.so/518ace9fdbed4b45b87114864c73e982" class="NumberedList" value="2"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">One cannot enter and exit on the same day.</span></span></li><li id="https://www.notion.so/578f31e157e54486a6128026d8d49b6a" class="NumberedList" value="3"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">The random prices created in the data is an attempt to replicate the random fluctuations of prices of the first few days of an IPO.</span></span></li></ol><h1 id="https://www.notion.so/137bb551706b456cbdd146269644771d" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Heading Heading--1"><a class="Anchor" href="#https://www.notion.so/137bb551706b456cbdd146269644771d"><svg width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 16 16"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M4 9h1v1H4c-1.5 0-3-1.69-3-3.5S2.55 3 4 3h4c1.45 0 3 1.69 3 3.5 0 1.41-.91 2.72-2 3.25V8.59c.58-.45 1-1.27 1-2.09C10 5.22 8.98 4 8 4H4c-.98 0-2 1.22-2 2.5S3 9 4 9zm9-3h-1v1h1c1 0 2 1.22 2 2.5S13.98 12 13 12H9c-.98 0-2-1.22-2-2.5 0-.83.42-1.64 1-2.09V6.25c-1.09.53-2 1.84-2 3.25C6 11.31 7.55 13 9 13h4c1.45 0 3-1.69 3-3.5S14.5 6 13 6z"></path></svg></a><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Analysis/Observations</span></span></h1><div id="https://www.notion.so/a25f64f594d94ff498e0d89b69cd2c63" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Text"><p class="Text__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">When looking at the optimal entry/exit points found by the program:</span></span></p></div><ol class="NumberedListWrapper"><li id="https://www.notion.so/0bb8b631543949468d5f906126c16ffa" class="NumberedList" value="1"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Entry points are distributed evenly across the 30 day investment horizon. </span></span></li><li id="https://www.notion.so/077b3044384843e3bd51c12272ec1c61" class="NumberedList" value="2"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">There was a higher frequency of exit points on the last days.</span></span></li></ol><div id="https://www.notion.so/faa7b5a5a3344ea784088cd8dc4d9923" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Text"><p class="Text__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"></span></p></div><h1 id="https://www.notion.so/273822efd8d24a069ada5493bec4f5ed" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Heading Heading--1"><a class="Anchor" href="#https://www.notion.so/273822efd8d24a069ada5493bec4f5ed"><svg width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 16 16"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M4 9h1v1H4c-1.5 0-3-1.69-3-3.5S2.55 3 4 3h4c1.45 0 3 1.69 3 3.5 0 1.41-.91 2.72-2 3.25V8.59c.58-.45 1-1.27 1-2.09C10 5.22 8.98 4 8 4H4c-.98 0-2 1.22-2 2.5S3 9 4 9zm9-3h-1v1h1c1 0 2 1.22 2 2.5S13.98 12 13 12H9c-.98 0-2-1.22-2-2.5 0-.83.42-1.64 1-2.09V6.25c-1.09.53-2 1.84-2 3.25C6 11.31 7.55 13 9 13h4c1.45 0 3-1.69 3-3.5S14.5 6 13 6z"></path></svg></a><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Generating Stock Data</span></span></h1><div id="https://www.notion.so/303b1294a92c4a47abe6987fb6f13dd0" class="Divider"></div><div id="https://www.notion.so/968cda4a211f41659e86808c8396a003" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Text"><p class="Text__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">To generate the basic stock data, the following is needed: the stock name, the
number of days, and the stock prices over a certain number of days.</span></span></p></div><h2 id="https://www.notion.so/f5c6f1de0aa342c18433c6386506447b" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Heading Heading--2"><a class="Anchor" href="#https://www.notion.so/f5c6f1de0aa342c18433c6386506447b"><svg width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 16 16"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M4 9h1v1H4c-1.5 0-3-1.69-3-3.5S2.55 3 4 3h4c1.45 0 3 1.69 3 3.5 0 1.41-.91 2.72-2 3.25V8.59c.58-.45 1-1.27 1-2.09C10 5.22 8.98 4 8 4H4c-.98 0-2 1.22-2 2.5S3 9 4 9zm9-3h-1v1h1c1 0 2 1.22 2 2.5S13.98 12 13 12H9c-.98 0-2-1.22-2-2.5 0-.83.42-1.64 1-2.09V6.25c-1.09.53-2 1.84-2 3.25C6 11.31 7.55 13 9 13h4c1.45 0 3-1.69 3-3.5S14.5 6 13 6z"></path></svg></a><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Generating Stock Names and Days</span></span></h2><div id="https://www.notion.so/cf329d2e073049b7a5e03f714ca69e9a" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Text"><p class="Text__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">The stock name and the number of days can be a fixed number, however the stock prices have to be random in order to replicate the fluctuations of an IPO. This can be created using an iterative loop in python. </span></span></p></div><div id="https://www.notion.so/852c33debd974555aafd1d901c89041e" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Text"><p class="Text__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString"> For example, to create a list of stock names use the following code.</span></span></p></div><pre id="https://www.notion.so/3bcd216016e74068abca64aebf8bb86f" class="Code Code--NoWrap"><code><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString"><span><span class="token comment">#Generates a list of stocks ranging from 1 to 5, including 5.</span>
stock_name <span class="token operator">=</span> <span class="token punctuation">[</span><span class="token punctuation">]</span>
<span class="token keyword">for</span> i <span class="token keyword">in</span> <span class="token builtin">range</span><span class="token punctuation">(</span><span class="token number">1</span><span class="token punctuation">,</span><span class="token number">6</span><span class="token punctuation">)</span><span class="token punctuation">:</span> <span class="token comment">#range(start#, END# +1)</span>
stock_name<span class="token punctuation">.</span>append<span class="token punctuation">(</span>i<span class="token punctuation">)</span></span></span></span></code></pre><div id="https://www.notion.so/7e94420837f24620bfb746bc93995473" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Text"><p class="Text__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">The above function can be used to create a set number of days as well. </span></span></p></div><h2 id="https://www.notion.so/f9672acd6f6242d7812d90320e883d3a" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Heading Heading--2"><a class="Anchor" href="#https://www.notion.so/f9672acd6f6242d7812d90320e883d3a"><svg width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 16 16"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M4 9h1v1H4c-1.5 0-3-1.69-3-3.5S2.55 3 4 3h4c1.45 0 3 1.69 3 3.5 0 1.41-.91 2.72-2 3.25V8.59c.58-.45 1-1.27 1-2.09C10 5.22 8.98 4 8 4H4c-.98 0-2 1.22-2 2.5S3 9 4 9zm9-3h-1v1h1c1 0 2 1.22 2 2.5S13.98 12 13 12H9c-.98 0-2-1.22-2-2.5 0-.83.42-1.64 1-2.09V6.25c-1.09.53-2 1.84-2 3.25C6 11.31 7.55 13 9 13h4c1.45 0 3-1.69 3-3.5S14.5 6 13 6z"></path></svg></a><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Generating Random Stock Prices</span></span></h2><div id="https://www.notion.so/dd76258b629249169fe0505bf95dac1e" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Text"><p class="Text__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Generating the stock prices over a number of days is different as the prices have to be random on each day. The random numbers can be created using a simple random function, and then can be tweaked to amplify the randomness of the prices. The first one section of the below code shows the simple version of the random function.</span></span></p></div><pre id="https://www.notion.so/460313ea178e4963963fc8d9f85da5d2" class="Code Code--NoWrap"><code><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString"><span><span class="token comment">#Simple version of random function.</span>
rand_num <span class="token operator">=</span> <span class="token punctuation">[</span><span class="token punctuation">]</span>
<span class="token keyword">for</span> y <span class="token keyword">in</span> sp<span class="token punctuation">.</span>random<span class="token punctuation">.</span>uniform<span class="token punctuation">(</span>low <span class="token operator">=</span> <span class="token number">1</span><span class="token punctuation">,</span> high <span class="token operator">=</span> <span class="token number">5</span><span class="token punctuation">,</span> size <span class="token operator">=</span> <span class="token number">1</span><span class="token punctuation">)</span><span class="token punctuation">:</span>
rand_num<span class="token punctuation">.</span>append<span class="token punctuation">(</span>y<span class="token punctuation">)</span>
rand_num
<span class="token comment">#EXAMPLE OUTPUT: [2.6924070800438296]</span></span></span></span></code></pre><div id="https://www.notion.so/7191ca227daf44cf90334329c3a9e075" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Text"><p class="Text__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">The function used in the source code nested more random functions within the low and high parameters of the original function to amplify the randomness of the prices.</span></span></p></div><div id="https://www.notion.so/95551bf5a1a0415081a92f794032d4cc" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Text"><p class="Text__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"></span></p></div><div id="https://www.notion.so/bc9418d30dc641449469647c8b994d04" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Text"><p class="Text__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"></span></p></div><h1 id="https://www.notion.so/20dd440fc219453f960f51f67394171b" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Heading Heading--1"><a class="Anchor" href="#https://www.notion.so/20dd440fc219453f960f51f67394171b"><svg width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 16 16"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M4 9h1v1H4c-1.5 0-3-1.69-3-3.5S2.55 3 4 3h4c1.45 0 3 1.69 3 3.5 0 1.41-.91 2.72-2 3.25V8.59c.58-.45 1-1.27 1-2.09C10 5.22 8.98 4 8 4H4c-.98 0-2 1.22-2 2.5S3 9 4 9zm9-3h-1v1h1c1 0 2 1.22 2 2.5S13.98 12 13 12H9c-.98 0-2-1.22-2-2.5 0-.83.42-1.64 1-2.09V6.25c-1.09.53-2 1.84-2 3.25C6 11.31 7.55 13 9 13h4c1.45 0 3-1.69 3-3.5S14.5 6 13 6z"></path></svg></a><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Visualizations</span></span></h1><div id="https://www.notion.so/150c22b9b26149a6aaa75abdcfc40bec" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Text"><p class="Text__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">This is an example of generated optimal entry/exit day points results from the code.</span></span></p></div><div id="https://www.notion.so/7b8d620c29a047669cacd2af2732627e" class="Image Image--Normal"><figure><a href="https://www.notion.so/signed/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fsecure.notion-static.com%2F5c753058-edeb-423e-b25b-65413d8519f8%2FUntitled.png?width=440&table=block&id=7b8d620c-29a0-4766-9cac-d2af2732627e"><img src="https://www.notion.so/signed/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fsecure.notion-static.com%2F5c753058-edeb-423e-b25b-65413d8519f8%2FUntitled.png?width=440&table=block&id=7b8d620c-29a0-4766-9cac-d2af2732627e" style="width:440px"/></a><figcaption><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Bar Graph showing the frequency of the optimal entry days.</span></span></figcaption></figure></div><div id="https://www.notion.so/be843d8d34e549c897d89186a4e928dd" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Text"><p class="Text__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"></span></p></div><div id="https://www.notion.so/7326a7fef834476ca21a344bc9ae74be" class="Image Image--Normal"><figure><a href="https://www.notion.so/signed/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fsecure.notion-static.com%2F8fef83a1-0e60-4364-b8fc-b655d1251ebe%2FUntitled.png?width=440&table=block&id=7326a7fe-f834-476c-a21a-344bc9ae74be"><img src="https://www.notion.so/signed/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fsecure.notion-static.com%2F8fef83a1-0e60-4364-b8fc-b655d1251ebe%2FUntitled.png?width=440&table=block&id=7326a7fe-f834-476c-a21a-344bc9ae74be" style="width:440px"/></a><figcaption><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Bar Graph showing the frequency of the optimal exit days.</span></span></figcaption></figure></div><div id="https://www.notion.so/28f615a8ff7e439fbfbdfa3271775dcb" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--ColorDefault Text"><p class="Text__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"></span></p></div><div id="https://www.notion.so/2f571206b5024252a090c320ecd5a64a" class="ColorfulBlock ColorfulBlock--BgGray Callout"><div class="Callout__Icon"><div class="Icon">🔗</div></div><p class="Callout__Content"><span class="SemanticStringArray"><span class="SemanticString">Check the </span><span class="SemanticString"><a class="SemanticString__Fragment SemanticString__Fragment--Link" href="https://github.com/RishiHub-S/Simulating_Stock_Data">source code</a></span><span class="SemanticString"> of the program on GitHub for all the visualizations and to simulate the data. </span></span></p></div></article>
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