cynefin-eu-field-guide.pot

# Managing complexity (and chaos) in times of crisis
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"Managing complexity (and chaos) in times of crisis: A field guide for "
"decision makers inspired by the Cynefin framework"
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msgid "Dave Snowden; Alessandro Rancati"
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"This book is a joint effort by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European "
"Commission’s science and knowledge service and the Cynefin Centre. It aims "
"to provide sense-making support to the European policymaking process.  The "
"output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European "
"Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf "
"of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this "
"publication.  For information on the methodology and quality underlying the "
"data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor "
"other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source."
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"*EU Science Hub* +\n"
"https://ec.europa.eu/jrc\n"
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"*Cynefin Centre* +\n"
"https://www.cynefincentre.com/\n"
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msgid "JRC 123629"
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#. type: Plain text
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msgid "EUR 30569 EN"
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#. type: Plain text
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msgid "PDF ISBN 978-92-76-28844-2 ISSN 1831-9424 doi:10.2760/353"
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#. type: Plain text
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msgid "Print ISBN 978-92-76-28843-5 ISSN 1018-5593 doi:10.2760/164392"
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#. type: Plain text
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msgid "Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2021"
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#. type: Plain text
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msgid "© European Union, 2021"
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msgid ""
"The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by the Commission "
"Decision 2011/833/EU of 12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission "
"documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). Except otherwise noted, the reuse "
"of this document is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 "
"International (CC BY 4.0) licence "
"(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is "
"allowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are "
"indicated. For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is "
"not owned by the EU, permission must be sought directly from the copyright "
"holders."
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msgid ""
"Cynefin® and SenseMaker® are registered trademarks of Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd "
"and its subsidiary companies. SenseMaker® is registered in the United States "
"of America. Cynefin® is registered in the United States of America, the "
"European Union, Australia, Singapore, and New Zealand. For the purposes of "
"ease of use, the Trademark TM and Registered ® symbols are not used in the "
"body of this book, but still apply to registered trademarks."
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msgid "All content © European Union, 2021"
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#. type: Title ==
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msgid "Abstract"
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"This field guide helps to navigate in times of crisis using the Cynefin "
"framework as a compass.  It proposes a four-stage approach through which we "
"can:"
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msgid "assess the type of crisis and initiate a response;"
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msgid ""
"adapt to the new pace and start building sensing networks to inform "
"decisions;"
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"repurpose existing structures and working methods to generate radical "
"innovation;"
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msgid "transcend the crisis, formalise lessons learnt and increase resilience."
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"The guide stresses the importance of setting and managing boundaries, "
"building informal structures, keeping options open, distributing engagement "
"and keeping an ongoing assessment of the evolving landscape. Action items, "
"real life examples and demonstrations complement the references to the "
"developing theoretical framework."
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msgid "Acknowledgements"
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"The authors would like to thank, for their contribution to this field book: "
"Pierpaolo Andriani, Kedge Business school; Anne Caspari, Cynefin Centre; "
"Beth Smith, Cynefin Centre; Eleanor Snowden, Cynefin Centre; Vera Winthagen, "
"Joint Research Centre, European Commission."
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"In the course of producing this guide we benefited from early review of the "
"structure and content from a wide range of people from four continents who "
"had experience in the use of the Cynefin Framework."
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"We would like to acknowledge their contributions: Anthony Waddell, Barclay "
"Rae, Barry M O’Reilly, Boudewijn Bertsch, Bruno Baketarić, Carl Davies, "
"Chantal Woltring, Christopher Bramley, David Williams, Derek Masselink, Emma "
"Jones, Henrik Mårtensson, Jacqueline Conway, Jimmy Sjölund, Jules "
"André-Brown, Jules Yim, Mario López de Ávila Muñoz, Mark Williams, Mary E "
"Boone, Matteo Carella, Michael Cheveldave, Oli’ Kopp, Patrick Hollingworth, "
"Rolf F. Katzenberger, Simone Jo Moore, Sinan Si Alhir, Sonja Blignaut, "
"Staffan Nöteberg, Stefan Knecht, Zhen Goh"
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msgid "Authors"
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"*Dave Snowden* +\n"
"University of Hull, Stellenbosch University Professor, complexity "
"practitioner\n"
"Creator of the Cynefin framework\n"
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"The Cynefin framework grew out of my starting to develop the field of "
"naturalising sense-making. The naturalising element links to the need to use "
"natural science in understanding how humans interact with systems and with "
"each other."
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"Sense-making is defined as how do I make sense of the world so that I can "
"act in it. For practice to be informed by good science is critical in the "
"growing turbulence of the world we live in and I hope that the framework, "
"and this book make some small contribution to that goal."
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"*Alessandro Rancati* +\n"
"Joint Research Centre, European Commission\n"
"Architect, designer\n"
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"The Cynefin framework made me realise how design, in what I consider its "
"most valuable expression, ritually creates moments of crisis, tapping into "
"chaos to propose profound paradigmatic changes. In this book we make "
"reference to the role of design and design practices in mapping crisis and "
"in moving out of uncertainty. We suggest how synthesizing our experiences "
"within crisis into visual landscapes is a precondition to start coherent "
"action. In the illustrations, I tried to express how sometimes crisis "
"transforms our most solid structures into beautiful new entities."
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msgid "Foreword"
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"More often than not, what works in normal times won’t work in a crisis. We "
"need to think and act differently. This field guide provides a framework to "
"help decision-makers to do this. Inspired by the Cynefin framework, it "
"describes methods and practices that can help decision-makers to navigate "
"complexity and chaos, respond effectively to crisis, and deepen "
"organisational resilience."
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"I first encountered Dave Snowden and his work on the Cynefin framework at an "
"internal European Commission training event in early 2010. Dave’s "
"presentation was both inspiring and challenging. Inspiring because full of "
"fresh ideas and provocations for my established way of seeing "
"things. Challenging, because my initial conclusion was: this sounds great, "
"but how to do it? I had difficulty seeing how I could make use of these "
"ideas and concepts in the “normality” of public administration."
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"In the subsequent months and years, I spent quite some time listening to "
"Dave’s podcasts, reading his blog and trying to feel my way towards making "
"good use of these concepts in my job. It seemed obvious to me that I should, "
"yet I struggled to work out how. I went on an Cynefin training course, to "
"try to get a better understanding of the concepts, and I increasingly found "
"myself using elements of Cynefin language to frame my decision-making. For "
"example, I found that asking whether this was a simple, a complicated or a "
"complex problem helped me to categorise things and adapt my responses "
"accordingly. But I remained conscious that this was a very superficial use "
"of a far more sophisticated toolkit."
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"When I was asked to lead the Commission’s IT Department in 2013, I reached "
"out to Dave and got one step further forward, running an internal pilot "
"using Cynefin techniques to map customer stories in relation to IT. The "
"stories we captured were relevant and did help us to shape the strategy to "
"improve customer solutions, yet we did not embed this more deeply into our "
"way of doing things. Dave came to speak at our annual IT conference in 2013 "
"and got very positive responses, but overall my efforts to help “spread the "
"word” remained an interesting side project."
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"In 2016 I moved again, to run tax and customs, and my personal Cynefin path "
"went a bit cold. I was still using the language to guide my thinking, but "
"not in an integrated way. During this period I did, however, have the "
"opportunity to start working with Alessandro Rancati in the Joint Research "
"Centre’s EU Policy Lab, using design methods to map out my vision for the "
"future development of the department. Serendipitously, when I was asked to "
"take on the leadership of the Joint Research Centre in early 2020, this "
"connection created the path to reconnect with Cynefin. I arrived as the "
"pandemic was raging, and one of the very first conversations I had was with "
"Alessandro and Dave, who were already working together on this field guide."
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"One of the positive effects of the crisis is that it has forced policy "
"makers to “think anew”. It has forced us to understand that we need to adopt "
"more robust responses to managing complexity in times of crisis. And, I "
"hope, it has helped to create the conditions for a broader understanding and "
"uptake of the usefulness of frameworks such as Cynefin in making sense of "
"things. I wish I had had such a guide back in 2010, and I am delighted that "
"it now exists."
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"In the Joint Research Centre, we will continue to explore how we can best "
"make use of this framework to support policy design and delivery in the "
"European Commission. The COVID pandemic has demonstrated that we need to "
"find new and better ways of acting and reacting. This field guide offers "
"important, powerful and practical tips on how. I believe that if "
"decision-makers are able to embed the practices and methods set out in this "
"field guide in their organisations, it will enhance resilience and the "
"ability to respond effectively to future crises. Not only will the starting "
"point be better next time around – so will the response. I very much hope "
"you find it useful."
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"Stephen Quest + Director General + European Commission - Joint Research "
"Centre"
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"| stages\n"
"| *Assess*\n"
"| *Adapt*\n"
"| *[<>]*\n"
"| *Exapt*\n"
"| *Transcend*\n"
"\n"
"| crisis level\n"
"| chaos\n"
"| chaos\n"
"| pivot\n"
"| emergent stability\n"
"| stability\n"
"\n"
"| risks\n"
"| lack of future preparedness\n"
"\n"
"contingency plans are missing\n"
"\n"
"old approaches are still relevant\n"
"| normal pace stays in effect\n"
"\n"
"weak signals are not spotted or ignored\n"
"| over-commitment, too early on\n"
"| centralised decisions\n"
"\n"
"rigid structures\n"
"\n"
"long term cycles\n"
"| late stocktaking\n"
"\n"
"biased stocktaking\n"
"\n"
"| likely state of mind\n"
"| *surprised, overwhelmed*\n"
"| *puzzled*\n"
"| *reactive*\n"
"| *resolute*\n"
"| *confident*\n"
"\n"
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msgid "2+| ideal disposition"
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"| *reflective* verify if the situation is novel and if contingency plans "
"exist, start journaling | *empowering* centralise coherence (not "
"decisions!), coordinate interventions, delegate decision, ensure divergent "
"contributions | *aporetic* focus on making sense of all input, build "
"coherence, spot opportunities, challenges and dispositions | *radical* open "
"to radically repurpose existing processes and tools | *systematic* "
"formalising experiences and lessons learnt | *draconian* set clear "
"boundaries to gain time to think | *transparent* communicate by engagement, "
"map dispositions | | *explorative* open to set up parallel coherent "
"experiements to address key issues |"
msgstr ""

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msgid "4+| actions"
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"| *set draconian constraints* Constraints are not bad per se; without them "
"there would be no evolution. Constraints are also a key enabler of "
"creativity. Set unquestionable constraints early to gain time.  | *manage "
"constraints* Monitor dispositions and manage constraints to detect "
"beneficial behavioural patterns.  | *landscapes from experiences* Narratives "
"give insights on the disposition of an rganisation. They also identify "
"agents, drivers of change, explicit and hidden boundaries, informal "
"processes, challenges and opportunites.  | *repurpose* The most efficient "
"way to address crisis is through exaptation, or radical repurposing of "
"available assets.  | *manage cadence and control* At this point we should "
"have several units operating in ways that are novel for the organisation: "
"maintain cadence and control. If we lose coherence, we may quickly spiral "
"back into chaos.  | *start a journal* Journaling creates precious learning "
"material across the entire crisis. Start early and sketch as much as "
"possible. Visual journaling provides thick data, synthesises more "
"information in a smaller space and allows for both quick scanning and "
"detailed recall.  | *reduce granularity* Fragment information, capture rich "
"data. Increase communication and awareness: embrace repetition, be as "
"transparent as the situation allows with a bias towards overtransparency.  | "
"*discover opportunities* The response to a challenge varies depending on its "
"nature and on its context. Lack of time, resources or knowledge may turn a "
"clear decision into chaos.  | *extreme repurposing* Unexpected events "
"brought us unintentionally into chaotic processes that can have catastrophic "
"consequences on us and on out context.  | *ritualise learning* We learn more "
"from failures than success, and the learnings are more reliable if the "
"leassons are recorde and formalised when they are still fresh.  | *activate "
"human sensor networks* Ask cognitively, culturally and experientially "
"diverse groups of people to assess the situation independently of each other "
"without the chance of cross connection.  | *create specialised crews* We "
"can't afford for everyone to be involved in everything (it wasn't a good "
"idea even in normal times). Old forms of consensus are going to have to go "
"out of the window fast.  | | *design radical innovation* Enter deliberately "
"in chaos by removin conceptual boundaries and fixations; push the envelope, "
"explore unreasonable ideas. Reframe the problem space, challenge the norm.  "
"| | | *distribute engagement* We need distributed sensor networks and fast "
"feedback loops to detext and manage weak signals.  | | *design strategic "
"interventions* Challenge the interactions between agents to inform strategic "
"decisions. It is more effective than pre-determining an objective.  |"
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"In chaos, we need to quickly stabilize the situation setting drastic "
"constraints to make time for assessment."
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"Once a relatively stable situation has been reached, we can start to adapt "
"to the new context."
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"In times of crisis our context changes to the point of creating an emotional "
"or cognitive shock and a state of confusion."
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"*Set draconian constraints:* The first immediate action is to create hard "
"boundaries that allow us to gain time while observing and mapping what is "
"coming at us, to identify what response strategies need to be adopted.\n"
msgstr ""

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"*Check for contingency plans:* If the situation was foreseen or expected and "
"there are contingency plans, then we address the crisis according to plan.\n"
msgstr ""

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"*Start assessing:* If the situation caught us unprepared, we need to quickly "
"create small, informal groups that will dive into chaos to understand how "
"the crisis changed the landscape.\n"
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"The first and most fundamental question in crisis is: are we ready for this? "
"In other words:"
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msgid "*Was it possible or plausible* for us that this event could happen?\n"
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"*Do we have contingency plans* in place for this crisis and are we sure we "
"are correctly assessing it?\n"
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msgid "If the answer to both is YES!"
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"Then we can implement our planned process. If the response was unknowable in "
"advance but, after an initial assessment, decisions are clear, then our "
"system is resilient, has a degree of redundancy and will allow us to address "
"the crisis. + Still, we need to pay attention to two aspects that can have "
"major consequences. We need to *constantly monitor for outliers* that "
"question whether our initial assessment might be wrong. We also need to "
"*create clear boundaries around the start and end of the crisis*. Avoiding "
"drift is key and ritualising boundary transitions is important."
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msgid "If the answer to either is NO!"
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"Then we are in a far more serious situation and planned processes and old "
"ways of working have to be treated with care. We urgently need to initiate a "
"radical change in the way we work, we need to adapt very quickly to changed "
"circumstances."
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"Most organisations have learnt to plan for unexpected threats and surprises, "
"the now notorious black swan events. Contingency and scenario planning, cone "
"of possibilities and many other techniques have emerged over the years. But "
"every now and then something comes along which falls outside the range of "
"our planning and creates a level of shock that we find difficult to manage."
msgstr ""

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"Chaos and catastrophe by their very definition do not repeat but it is "
"important to realise that there are different types and levels of "
"uncertainty that we need to be aware of. It is not always about being "
"rational or having a process in place: being aware of our limits in what we "
"are able to see and comprehend as possibilities is as important as "
"planning. Indeed, in some contexts, planning may make us more vulnerable "
"than improvising, as it exposes us to inattentional bias."
msgstr ""

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"24 radiologists were asked to perform a familiar lung nodule detection in a "
"set of radiographies."
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"A picture of a gorilla, 48 times larger than the average nodule, was "
"inserted in the last case, but 83% of radiologists did not see "
"it. Eye-tracking showed that the majority of the those who missed the "
"gorilla looked directly at it."
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"The 17% who had seen the gorilla changed their minds after talking to the "
"83%. In crisis it is important to identify the 17% in our organization and "
"let them share what they see before they are influenced by the 83%."
msgstr ""

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msgid "Comprehension and decision"
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"| | unknowable | knowable | known\n"
"\n"
"| *feasible* it will happen | design for resilience & redundancy | rapid "
"response and deployment | planned response\n"
"\n"
"| *plausible* but unlikely | serendipity | rapid repurposing | contingency "
"planning\n"
"\n"
"| *unimaginable* but possible | sacrifice | seize the day | reality strikes "
"back\n"
msgstr ""

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"In making a decision it is in human nature to quickly carry out a partial "
"data scan and then filter it through multiple fragmented memories for a "
"‘first fit’ (vs. a ‘best fit’) pattern match. This makes us see first what "
"we remember or what we expect. This limitation is a part of what, as "
"decision makers, we need to work with. + *Our ability to comprehend* ranges "
"from the totally expected, where (like a squirrel) we can marshal and "
"prepare resources for hard times, to a combination of the unexpected black "
"swans with the elephant in the room. The recent COVID-19 crisis and climate "
"change being two good examples of this. In these cases inattention comes "
"from our feeling of being unable to do something: we ignore the issue in the "
"hope that it might pass."
msgstr ""

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"*Our ability to respond* is a question for knowledge management. It ranges "
"from known through knowable to unknowable. At one extreme we are fully aware "
"that something can happen and have a more or less automatic process which "
"comes into play when the trigger event occurs. At the other extreme we are "
"faced with something that we simply couldn’t comprehend and we have no idea "
"or process able to handle it. We have to accept that some major sacrifice or "
"sacrifices will be needed to survive, if survival is possible. A key part of "
"our planning is to recognise these differences and reflect them in our "
"strategy. The green areas in the diagram are those for which conventional "
"planning is possible, the orange (and in large part the white) require to "
"both think and act in radically different ways. Once we have established "
"that the current situation was either not considered plausible, was "
"unimaginable or we have no plans and little idea of what to do, we need to "
"again double check and really be sure, as from now on our entire focus is "
"going to be on how to rethink our organisational structure in terms of "
"disentanglement.\n"
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msgid "Disentanglement"
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"During moments of stability, when bureaucracy and conservative interests "
"tend to grow in importance, organisations evolve into a deeply entangled "
"complex system, like bramble bushes in a thicket or the root system of a "
"mangrove swamp. In a crisis, much of this entanglement can and should be "
"surrendered to the moment. There is a real chance to *sense, see and actuate "
"new forms of simplicity* to increase the overall agility and resilience of "
"the organisation. Chaos places us in a very fluid context: first we have to "
"gain some form of control, then we need to empower informal networks through "
"light organisational structures. Resources need to be radically and, "
"possibly, permanently reallocated. Life is not going to be the same again, "
"even if we escape unscathed from the situation. We can’t predict outcomes, "
"so we need to shift and move at speed and be open to new possibilities on "
"the journey; manage the risk as well as the possibilities. The only thing we "
"know for certain is that there will be unintended consequences: we must be "
"prepared for those too."
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msgid "Immediate priorities"
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"We start by *setting constraints*, and this may need an authoritarian act to "
"keep options open as long as possible. This approach is likely to be "
"accepted in the early days of crisis, but less so as things progress. By "
"creating constraints we gain some control over a chaotic environment and "
"give ourselves time to shift gears for the organisation as a "
"whole. Contraints must be providing enough structure while staying flexible "
"enough to let people react and adapt to the new context. Too rigid "
"constraints will only resist for a short time and will break "
"catastrophically."
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"It is then critical to *identify any immediate short term action* which will "
"hold as many options open for the future as possible. We might be tempted to "
"seek evidence that points us to \"the\" right thing do, however, in a crisis "
"situations unravel rapidly, and we need to practice the delicate dance "
"between seeking confirmation and taking decisive action. We have to "
"demonstrate action, whilst maintaining space for the emergence for as yet "
"unknowable changes."
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"After this initial set of decisions, the modus operandi changes. From now on "
"the essence of ‘command’ is to *co-ordinate while delegating decision "
"making*. We keep an eye on managing the bigger picture and reserve energy to "
"scan across a wider range of activities. + The sheer volume of decisions "
"demand the need for intimate knowledge of local context. Leadership needs to "
"assume the role of a grand conductor - coordinating and creating space for "
"local experts to make decisions for their contextual needs. The organisation "
"has the opportunity to enter in a co-design mode, with the intent of "
"questioning its scope and re-designing its practices in a collaborative "
"way. A further argument in support of suspending top-down decisions is the "
"cost of un-doing. When we over-commit, we reduce our ability to change "
"course if the situation evolves exposing unexpected threats."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:294
msgid ""
"We need to keep options open as long as possible and *avoid premature "
"convergence*. A human sensor network increases the resilience of decisions "
"and responses. If our employees are part of it, and they should, then the "
"network will serve a double purpose, as our engaging them as a support for "
"decisions will also give reasons for deeper motivation and engagement. This "
"is how we *communicate through engagement*, pull as well as push."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:295
#, no-wrap
msgid "Assess in chaos - Set draconian constraints"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:298
msgid ""
"Without constraints there would be no evolution. They are also a key enabler "
"of creativity. Set unquestionable constraints early to gain time and "
"increase downstream options:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:299
msgid "no exceptions;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:300
msgid "avoid constraints that are too rigid or last for too long;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:301
msgid "keep communication open and extremely frequent."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:303
#, no-wrap
msgid "*Limit chaos** by immediately setting draconian constraints.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:306
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Several forms of constraints are possible:* connecting or containing, "
"resilient or robust. rigid or flexible, permeable, changing, \"dark\", "
"etc. Each has advantages and disadvantages: rigid and flexible break "
"catastrophically, permeable clog, changing and dark may not be perceived or "
"respected.\n"
"We set constraints by defining and enforcing governance systems, decision "
"making processes, spaces and methods for interaction, physical "
"infrastructures, and by accepting behaviours, rituals, needs, etc.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:310
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Set enabling constraints.* Two examples are rituals, which allow the "
"creation of informal networks, and heuristics, very simple principles that "
"reduce noise and create a common ground, a sort of pre-conditions for "
"consensus, to allow for quick decision making. A ritual could be to organise "
"a daily breakfast with all members of a unit to foster the spontaneous "
"exchange of knowledge. It is crucial to seek the exchange of knowledge as an "
"indirect result of rituals. In our example, it would be an error to set "
"\"thematic\" breakfasts with the explicit purpose of collecting "
"knowledge. This \"rigid thematic boundary\" would either fail quickly or "
"require too much energy to be kept alive. +\n"
"Examples of heuristics are very common in nature. For example, the set of "
"principles that govern the flight of a flock (and unregulated or pedestrian "
"traffic): match speed, avoid collision, move to the centre. They allow "
"individual decision making within shared boundaries. +\n"
"In organisational terms, heuristics are often recognisable in overarching, "
"informal governance principles.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:312
msgid ""
"In more general terms, an enabling constraint has a low lwvel of granularity "
"and fixes either the why or the what or the how, but not the three at the "
"same time. It should also have a certain degree of flexibility to adjust to "
"the changing context."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:314
msgid ""
"After setting constraints, we need to assess if the system is stabilising "
"and/or if we can start to detect coherent patterns of response. It is "
"essential to maintain communication with stakeholders and personnel."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:315
#, no-wrap
msgid "Setting constraints in COVID-19"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:318
msgid ""
"COVID-19 demonstrated how good we are at creating boundaries to gain "
"control."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:320
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Confinement* is the most evident form of rigid constraint introduced as "
"first response. Limiting personal movement gave relief to overloaded "
"sanitary systems and was the key response to \"flatten the curve\" or "
"contain transmission. *Closing national borders* is a further example of a "
"rigid, impermeable boundary being set up. Both constraints cannot be "
"enforced indefinitely without an adverse reaction. Some European states "
"introduced *curfew* as a more flexible constraint than total confinement.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:322
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Social distancing* is the name chosen to describe an increase in minimum "
"physical distance between two persons. This is a form of more flexible, "
"permeable, enabling, \"dark\" or invisible constraint. It allows people to "
"perform all key vital activities while creating an invisible boundary. The "
"boundary became visible in many places as soon as shops started to mark "
"distances on the pavement outside their business, or on walls.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:325
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Masks*, *gloves* and to an extent even *hand sanitizers* can be seen as "
"further physical, (im)permeable boundary introduced to prevent the "
"transmission of the virus. Most services and commercial activities open to "
"the public adopted *transparent partitions* as a physical boundary between "
"employees and clients. +\n"
"COVID-19 also showed us that several organisations had to remove some "
"limiting *legal, procedural or cultural* boundaries to allow business "
"continuity. This opened up the opportunity for radical innovation.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:327
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Remote working* removed the very rigid constraint of working from a "
"designated space in a designated time frame. It also removed the boundary "
"between personal, family life and work life.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:329
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Teleworking* removed the constraints created by physical distance. Ideally, "
"people were \"closer\" to each other, they could \"meet\" more frequently "
"irrespective of their physical location. At the same time, it introduced a "
"very rigid boundary that did not allow personal contact.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:331
msgid ""
"Several boundaries and constraints were not considered or changed. For "
"example, *no constraints were set or modified to regulate the movement of "
"goods*. Trade was impacted only when limitations to the movement of persons "
"affected a component of the production/distribution system, or when the "
"goods were deemed of strategic importance."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:332
#, no-wrap
msgid "Communication in COVID-19"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:335
msgid ""
"During the crisis, several concepts dominated mainstream communication and "
"acted as \"catalysts\" or attractors to create a particular disposition in "
"the public."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:337
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Flatten the curve* was a very powerful concept, useful to reinforce "
"legitimacy of confinement and social distancing. *Figures* of new ill cases "
"and deaths reinforced the urgency of compliance.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:340
msgid ""
"Experts opinions overlapped and supported contrasting positions.  Decision "
"makers adopted distinct strategies and forms of communication with civil "
"society. Some opened formal, direct communication channels for local "
"assessment and ideation of solutions, others opted for a more top-down "
"approach."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:342
#, no-wrap
msgid "Assess - Types of constraints"
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:344
#, no-wrap
msgid "Governing/enabling"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:347
msgid ""
"Laws, rules and codes create governing constraints. They give a sense of "
"stability but are sensitive to change. Heuristics and principles, on the "
"other side, provide guidance while allowing for distributed decision "
"making. Mining the organisation's narratives for examples of heuristics that "
"have evolved over time, based on expertise and experience, is a key audit "
"process. They are then consolidated, codified in memorable form and "
"associated with teaching stories for rapid distribution. Measurability of "
"compliance and a focus on concrete are key, abstract platitudes don’t work."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:348
#, no-wrap
msgid "Internal/external"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:351
msgid ""
"Insects have exo-skeletons which limit the size to which they can grow but "
"provide a clearly visible structure; mammals have an endo-skeleton which "
"makes them all self-similar but with wider variety and fewer limitations on "
"growth. Organisation design tends to focus on creating a skeleton, or "
"scaffolding, and ‘points of coherence’ around which unities interact with "
"each other and with the scaffoling itself. This is the case of ritualised "
"meetings, performance evaluations, career assessments, etc. As far as "
"external boundaries, think markets, resources, social foundations and "
"environmental ceilings."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:352
#, no-wrap
msgid "Connecting/containing"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:357
msgid ""
"Connections, like hashtags in knowledge management and links in networks, "
"provide a flexible and adaptive structure but at the cost of visibility and "
"control.  Containers, like categories, spreadsheets cells and departments, "
"provide clear, reassuring boundary conditions. + Changing connections "
"between people and organisational units is less costly than trying to "
"restructre or re-organise departments. As new connections start to provide "
"new ways of dealing with issues, then the constraints can be tightened and "
"eventually formalised into new units and departments."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:358
#, no-wrap
msgid "Rigid/flexible/permeable"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:362
msgid ""
"Deadlines are an example of constraints that are usually intended to be "
"rigid. Flexi-time is a malleable way to manage attendance at work. Rigid "
"structures resist until their design conditions are exceeded at which point "
"they break catastrophically. + In contrast, flexible structures adapt to "
"stress and conditions of constant change. Rigid and flexible boundaries "
"increase their resilience with permeability, or special conditions that "
"allow for exceptions, but permeability brings the possibility of clogs, "
"i.e. too many people applying for or expecting exceptions."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:363
#, no-wrap
msgid "Dark constraints"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:366
msgid ""
"A reference to dark energy or dark matter: we can see the effect of a "
"constraint but we don’t know the cause. Dark constraints are like the "
"several hidden meanings a term can assume for different people. When we "
"mention a term and we see different reactions, we see dark constraints at "
"work. Narratives are a powerful antidotes againsts dark constraints. We can "
"also get a sense of the risk going forward by modelling how much of the past "
"we can explain by the constraints we are aware of. The more we can’t explain "
"the less we can monitor, the more likely unexpected and potentially "
"catastrophic surprise."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:367
#, no-wrap
msgid "Methods for assessment - Start journaling"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:370
msgid ""
"Journaling creates precious learning material across the entire "
"crisis. Start early and sketch as much as possible. Visual journaling "
"provides thick data, synthesises more information in a smaller space and "
"allows for quick scanning and detailed recall:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:372
msgid "start sketching, basic shapes will do;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:373
msgid "if a concept is too complicated, use words. Avoid long paragraphs;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:374
msgid "use the space to cluster and connect. Focus on relationships."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:375
#, no-wrap
msgid "Gestalt principles"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:380
msgid ""
"The way our brain processes visual information is the result of an "
"evolutionary process that filters and reduces information to a bandwidth we "
"can assimilate (we covered attentional bias earlier in this guide), while "
"associating automatic response patterns to what we see. The main purpose of "
"all this is to help us navigate reality and react quickly to unforseen "
"situations.  In the early 1900's a group of psychologists researched these "
"response patterns and formulated a series of principles of human perception, "
"which were further explored by artists, architects and designers at the "
"Bauhaus.  Those basic laws are still used today in communication, branding "
"and advertising to capture our attention, generate emotions and elicit a "
"response. They will help us sketch more effectively."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:381
#, no-wrap
msgid "Founding principle"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:384
msgid ""
"All the gestalt principles that we will discover in the next examples stem "
"from a basic one, formulated by Kurt Koffka as:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:387
msgid "The whole is other than the sum of the parts."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:389
msgid "Note how he says \"other\", not \"more\"."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:390
#, no-wrap
msgid "Past experience & people"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:393
msgid ""
"If we are taking notes about our organisation, we will inevitably need to "
"draw a human figure. In most cases a circle for head and an additional "
"almost random shape will do. Our brain's past experience will tend to "
"transform the doodle into a person."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:394
#, no-wrap
msgid "Figure/ground"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:397
msgid ""
"Our brain divides the elements of an image into background and foreground, "
"and sees the foreground first. This allows us to guide the reader's eye by "
"placing in the foreground what we want to emphasize. Size often matters."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:398
#, no-wrap
msgid "Focal point"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:401
msgid ""
"We tend to see first and focus on any element that breaks a pattern or that "
"is clearly distinct from the rest of elements in a uniform distribution. We "
"can use this principle to guide the attention of the reader and influence "
"the reading order."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:402
#, no-wrap
msgid "Proximity"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:405
msgid ""
"Elements clustered together are automagically seen as one entity. Clustering "
"is a common exercise in visual reasoning. It allows us to create a synthetic "
"view of several contributions without losing detail. Clustering often helps "
"to create rhythm and harmony."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:406
#, no-wrap
msgid "Similarity"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:410
msgid ""
"We tend to group together signs that look similar, and to think that they "
"share the same properties. + We can use this principle to assign properties "
"to signs. We may need a legend to help the reader identify the properties of "
"each sign."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:411
#, no-wrap
msgid "Common region"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:414
msgid ""
"If individual elements are contained into regions, we identify clusters or "
"regions first, then we notice the properties of the individual items. We can "
"use this principle to create relationships among items, even when they look "
"dissimilar."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:415
#, no-wrap
msgid "Continuity"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:418
msgid ""
"We tend to perceive elements in a continuous flow, coherent with basic "
"shapes or with the natural motion of objects in nature. Even when the flow "
"is interrupted, we often \"close the gap\", by projecting a trajectory or by "
"privileging simplest forms."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:419
#, no-wrap
msgid "Closure & past experience"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:422
msgid ""
"Our brain tends to generate closed shapes by recreating the missing parts of "
"an image. We can work elegantly with empty spaces knowing we will compensate "
"by scanning through the patterns that we have memorized in our previous "
"experiences."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:423
#, no-wrap
msgid "Symmetry"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:426
msgid ""
"Our mind tends to recognise objects as symmetrical forms around a centre or "
"an axis. Symmetrical lines will then be perceived as boundaries of a "
"shape. Shapes with symmetrical properties will be clustered into a more "
"complex, unified object."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title =
#: en.adoc:427
#, no-wrap
msgid "Adapt"
msgstr ""

#. type: Block title
#: en.adoc:429
#, no-wrap
msgid "Adapt in complexity"
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:432
msgid ""
"In a complex adaptive system we manage the evolutionary possibilities of the "
"present; we start journeys rather than seeking to achieve goals. Goal based "
"behaviour implies the inability to develop the opportunities that emerge "
"along the way and which we could not anticipate. We need to resist the "
"temptation to narrow our perspective by anticipating or projecting the "
"future from our understanding of the past. We keep our options open, and "
"*cast around* to see what is possible: we side-cast, rather than back-cast "
"or fore-cast."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:435
msgid ""
"In lack of a contingency plan, we must reallocate resources and re-design "
"processes to empower the emergence of small, informal teams and networks "
"that will help us make sense of the new, changing landscape."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:437
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"**Manage constraints:** We reduce hard organisational constraints and "
"introduce flexible boundaries that allow to gain control of chaos and buy "
"time for an organisational shift.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:438
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"**Coordinate, do not decide:** distribute decisions to informal networks, "
"centralise coordination.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:439
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"**Communicate by engagement:** create informal employee networks to help "
"assess the situation and to contribute to taking decisions.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:440
#, no-wrap
msgid "**Avoid premature convergence:** keep options open as long as possible.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:441
#, no-wrap
msgid "Adapt in complexity - Manage (or manege) constraints"
msgstr ""

#. type: Block title
#: en.adoc:443
#, no-wrap
msgid "Manege"
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:446
msgid ""
"The English verb “to manage” was originally derived from the Italian "
"maneggiare, meaning to handle and train horses. In this earlier meaning the "
"emphasis is on learning with, abiding with, adapting to, respecting, and "
"working with another complex entity: the horse and rider as coevolving "
"brambles in a wider thicket of social traditions surrounding beauty and "
"form."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:448
msgid ""
"Around the early 18th century, this original meaning merged with the French "
"term menage, or household, making it easier to adapt the meaning of the "
"combined term manage to the metaphor of the obedient machine, to the "
"corridors of power, and to the actions of controlling and directing."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:450
msgid ""
"The naturalistic approach we have advocated, in effect a return to manege "
"rather than manage, is the most effective way to achieve results in "
"organisations made up of real people.”"
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:453
msgid "Kurtz & Snowden + “Like Bramble Bushes in a thicket”"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:456
msgid ""
"Monitor dispositions and manage constraints to detect beneficial behavioural "
"patterns."
msgstr ""

#. type: Block title
#: en.adoc:457
#, no-wrap
msgid "Monitor:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:459
msgid "dispositional states;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:460
msgid "propensities;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:461
msgid "identities;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:462
msgid "attractors;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:463
msgid "attitudes;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:464
msgid "weak signals;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:465
msgid "coherence."
msgstr ""

#. type: Block title
#: en.adoc:466
#, no-wrap
msgid "Manage:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:468
msgid "constraints;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:469
msgid "connections/linkages;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:470
msgid "roles and rituals;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:471
msgid "catalysts;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:472
msgid "granularity;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:473
msgid "diversity and dissent;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:474
msgid "cadence."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:476
msgid ""
"Continuously mapping and updating constraints within a system is key in "
"complexity approaches."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:479
msgid ""
"In organisational terms, we set boundaries and constraints every time we "
"assemble a business \"unit\" or define its roles and prescribe what may, "
"should and must do. \"May\", \"should\" and \"must\" being obviously an "
"example of different degrees of rigidity. We also set boundaries when we "
"combine several units and decide the protocols for their communication, "
"including frequency, tone and information channels. Formalised processes, "
"timeframes and milestones are boundaries. Policies that govern the exchange "
"of information and knowlege across the organisation are also forms of "
"boundaries. Beliefs, biases, fixations, subjective and/or collective "
"a-critical assumptions are further types of powerful and sometimes \"dark\" "
"boundaries among which definitions, categories and classifications as "
"\"the\" example of the most explicit, rigid (and contextually fragile) form "
"of constraint. Of equal if not even more importance are those boundaries "
"that may have not been set explicitly but that are equally perceived or "
"expressed through *routines and habits*. Crisis may force us to remove, "
"change or introduce many of such boundaries. It also gives us the "
"opportunity to enter proactively in a deliberate design phase and use the "
"new context as an alternative frame to question the status quo. In the next "
"pages this is identified as a stage of *dispositional exaptation*, or a "
"state where we willingly re-frame the problem space and prototype several "
"different ideas in order to improve our organisational setting and/or the "
"quality of our outputs. Re-framing is common practice, beyond crisis, in "
"strategic design and in design labs, where ad-hoc methods promote a form of "
"open, critical observation of the present. They represent a \"natural "
"science's\" approach to understand a context by mapping the landscape of "
"agents and their observable interactions beyond expectations, regulations, "
"guidelines, and norms. + Here, the problem space is rarely given for granted "
"and is allowed to co-evolve when known and unexpected challenges start to "
"emerge."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:481
msgid ""
"Assessing the current situation \"as is\" in terms of existing and changing "
"boundaries provides ideas for new organisational practices that may be more "
"beneficial from an economical, societal or environmental "
"perspective. Effective constraint management and redesign is all about "
"trying out several options starting from the current assessment. From here, "
"we seek to enable the emergence of resilient solutions with a low level of "
"risk (high informality) and energy (high spontaneity). If we haven’t "
"produced a map during the initial assessment then it's now time to do it; "
"the section on mapping landscapes provides some useful tips."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:483
msgid "Once we have a map, we can ask ourselves three key questions:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:485
msgid ""
"What are the issues and the opportunities in the context we just mapped? "
"*What can we change of the current situation*?"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:486
msgid ""
"Out of the things that we can change *how can we monitor the impact* of that "
"change?"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:487
msgid ""
"Out of the things that we can change and monitor *how can we rapidly amplify "
"success* or mitigate the impact of failure?"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:490
msgid ""
"To introduce safe to fail changes, we can, for example, add informality to a "
"very rigid process (which is how we transform a fixed constraint into "
"flexible), change the connections among people, establish rituals, reinforce "
"identities, change (preferably shorten) time horizons. In all cases we "
"monitor what happens, ready to quickly revert the experiments that go "
"wrong. Carrying out safe to fail experiments \"playing\" with constraints "
"and with motivational attractors (known as catalytic probes), is one way to "
"always seeking out the unseen possibilities. We call *side-casting* this "
"form of \"casting around\" to see what is possible. The technique, coupled "
"with *abductive research*, or seeking patterns in the tails of "
"distributions, is also know as *weak signal detection*. Abductive research "
"opens up the range of experiments and prevents us from jumping too quickly "
"to conclusions, which is very risky in conditions of complete "
"novelty. Finally, opportunities rarely come around again: we need to seize "
"the day. + A good practice to spot such opportunities in crisis is to keep "
"special attention to the odd ones out of the average consensus, especially "
"if they manifest some form of deep criticism."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:491
#, no-wrap
msgid "Managing constraints in COVID-19"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:494
msgid ""
"We saw earlier some example of boundaries and constraints set during "
"COVID-19. Can you spell out which of those constraints was changed in the "
"progression of the crisis in your country? Which were relaxed, made "
"transparent or permeable? Which ones were made more rigid or re-implemented?"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:496
msgid ""
"If you had to evaluate the management of constraints by your organisation or "
"by the public administration in your region, what would your assessment be?"
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:497
#, no-wrap
msgid "Adapt in complexity - Reduce granularity"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:500
msgid ""
"Fragment information, capture rich data. Increase communication and "
"awareness: embrace repetition, be as transparent as the situation allows "
"with a bias towards overtransparency:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:502
msgid "build crews with the 5/15/150 heuristics in mind;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:503
msgid ""
"keep objectives tight and real. Do not pursue over-aspirational "
"visions. Provide empathy and direction;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:504
msgid ""
"immediately shorten operating cadences: years>quarters, quarters>months, "
"months>weeks, weeks>days;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:505
msgid "promote fragmented, self-directed learning vs. directive learning."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:508
msgid ""
"Organisations designed for stability rarely survive the transit into "
"unstable, unpredictable times as long term objectives and planning cycles "
"are unable to respond to sustained change. Smaller ‘units’ can combine and "
"recombine in different ways and are more dynamic and agile in nature. + The "
"readjustment is necessary as soon as we detect a crisis: waiting can be very "
"costly or catastrophic."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:509
#, no-wrap
msgid "Organisational units (5/15/150)"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:512
msgid "There are some natural numbers which come into operation here."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:515
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Five* is a cognitive limit and the deep knowledge to manage a crisis means "
"that command teams or deployed units of less than five are more effective.\n"
"Breaking down traditional silos to this level of granularity and adding "
"overlapping members gives us the flexibility we need. Committee of 20+ "
"people need to be reduced to crews of 4/5 mission-oriented players (missions "
"orientate teams across silos).\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:517
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Five-teen* is a natural limit for deep trust and this is naturally present "
"in informal networks and associations but difficult to create in a formal "
"system in short order.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:519
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*One hundred and fifty* is a natural acquaint limit for humans; in a clan "
"(that is the structure we evolved from) there are rarely more than that "
"number. This size allows us to know the capabilities of the rest of the clan "
"and to operate more cohesively as a result. In practice this means breaking "
"down the organisation in coherent groups of less than a hundred, as our "
"employees have also relationships to maintain outside of work.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:520
#, no-wrap
msgid "Crews"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:523
msgid ""
"A crew is a diverse group able to focus and act without preparation. It is "
"based on clear roles and identities: we need to secure at least an expert, a "
"naive and an operational role. We can use a Belbin test to detect the "
"primary and secondary traits of each partcipant."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:526
msgid ""
"To turn generic groups into effective crews we must ritualize interactions, "
"to help members of a crew to enter in their role and maintain it or shift it "
"when needed. + We should also run social network stimulation exercises, "
"decribed later on, at least on an annual basis."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:527
#, no-wrap
msgid "Goals and missions"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:530
msgid ""
"We need *short(er) term goals* distributed over different crews. We may even "
"need to probe for the unexpected using contradictory objectives to ensure "
"resilience in our actions. Activity should be sustaineded in sprints with "
"those short term, clear objectives in mind. Reporting cycles also need to be "
"short and anyone with a relevant message or key insight should have direct "
"access to the centre."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:532
msgid ""
"Mission teams should focus initially on short term stabilisation, then on "
"medium term change. The idea of a mission allows us to bring in tools and "
"techniques to convey what is known as *commanders intent* which allows for "
"adjustment on the fly."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:534
msgid ""
"All and any objectives or missions should *focus on the adjacent (short "
"term) possibles* and should be rapidly adjusted and reset as needed."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:535
#, no-wrap
msgid "Information"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:542
msgid ""
"Anyone familiar with social media will know that small information units get "
"picked up and amplified more than long documents and papers. Narrative or "
"micro-stories can convey more context and meaning than structured text. Thay "
"act as a mediator between highly codified and structured information and "
"deep craft skills. + Rapid communication that can be absorbed quickly "
"requires a different way of thinking. Social media blogs, peer to peer "
"learning journals all provide this type of fragmented learning and knowledge "
"transfer/creation. The time for formal documents is after the crisis is "
"over. + It is worth remembering that text is not the only vehicle for "
"communication: photographs, brief videos and cartoons are also "
"valuable. Techniques using archetypal characters and persona also draw "
"attention and can often convey more complex meaning than a written page. + "
"Diverse perspectives, not only “more stories like mine” but also “stories "
"that contradict mine” and ‘surprise me’ queries are also useful. + During a "
"crisis people’s natural tendency (if they are not personally threatened) is "
"to seek out novelty - we should exploit this."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:543
#, no-wrap
msgid "Learning"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:546
msgid ""
"Learning is more effective if it is embedded in real time, critical "
"tasks. Learning by doing is almost an imperative during crisis."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:548
msgid ""
"As much as possible, turn any activity led by an expert practitioner into a "
"learning opportunity for the other members of the crew. Use screen casts or "
"shadowing techniques to show the operational choices."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:550
msgid ""
"Periodic, high frequency reporting is a further opportunity for spot "
"learning."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:552
msgid ""
"This approach fragments learning into self-contained, practical capsules "
"that are coherent with the flow of priorities."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:553
#, no-wrap
msgid "Adapt in complexity - Create specialised crews"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:556
msgid ""
"We can’t afford for everyone to be involved in everything (it wasn't a good "
"idea even in normal times). Old forms of consensus are going to have to go "
"out of the window fast:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:558
msgid "assemble specialised units, responsible for local decisions;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:559
msgid "set a reporting method to create awareness across crews;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:560
msgid "weave their findings."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:562
msgid ""
"Specialisation does not equal internal uniformity: vary the composition and "
"skills of each crew."
msgstr ""

#. type: Block title
#: en.adoc:563
#, no-wrap
msgid "Unintended consequences"
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:566
msgid ""
"Rolling the successful use of the Cane Toad to eat beetles threatening the "
"sugarcane plantations of Puerto Rico, 102 Toads were introduced into "
"Australia in 1935."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:568
msgid ""
"It not only failed to reduce the grey-backed cane beetles but had a massive "
"negative impact on Australian diversity."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:570
msgid "It represents a case study in unintended consequences."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:573
msgid ""
"The following are all permanent and focused crews. They need a cadence of "
"reporting, more frequent at the start, then different patterns of reporting "
"will become self-evident."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:575
msgid ""
"Reporting will always be a balancing act between providing access to the "
"centre (necessary for coordination and motivation) and preventing the "
"centre’s diaries being filled up with time consuming reports."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:577
msgid ""
"It is a good idea to train junior staff to record visually what is happening "
"in each group and have periodic summaries with them as a reporting and "
"synthesis exercise. We can meet all crews at the end of the day in an "
"informal setting."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:578
#, no-wrap
msgid "The probing crew"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:581
msgid ""
"Members of this crew include lateral thinkers (strategic designers, user "
"experience designers, service designers, artists), business correspondants, "
"sotware engineers and the organisation's most creative old foxes. This crew "
"has a special talent in *creating people-centred scenarios* to explore novel "
"concepts with the intention of transforming them into usable, tangible "
"proposals and prototypes. They will need to engage frequently with the "
"centre to update their thinking with the latest strategic developments."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:583
msgid "A probing crew is essential for radical repurposing."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:584
#, no-wrap
msgid "The wrecking crew"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:587
msgid ""
"The only predictable aspects of a complex system is that whatever you do "
"will have *unintended consequences*."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:589
msgid ""
"The unit is often comprised of mavericks and trouble makers. It is there to "
"*\"war game\" decisions* looking for possible unintended consequences, and "
"then monitor for both the expected and unexpected occurrences. They then "
"create recommendations to mitigate any negative effects, but also to rapidly "
"amplify unexpected positive results that might otherwise be missed."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:590
#, no-wrap
msgid "The journaling crew"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:593
msgid ""
"Any retrospective learning is deeply suspect, as hindsight is always "
"mediated by selective memory and by the political needs of the present."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:595
msgid ""
"So at the commencement of the crisis if we haven’t already got systems in "
"place for real time capture of lessons as they are learnt, together with "
"ideas for innovation, we need to get them in place fast. If the key actors "
"are too busy to record, then we can appoint apprentices or trainees."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:597
msgid ""
"Micro learning is critical and also provides an evidence based protection "
"for key decisions made without time for full evidence to be gathered."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:599
msgid ""
"This applies at *all* levels of the organisation; the central decision "
"makers need to *ritualise journal keeping*."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:601
msgid ""
"It can be very useful to include knowledge asset mapping into this as well "
"as morning and evening reflections."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:603
msgid ""
"Making this data available for peer to peer information flows during the "
"crisis is also critical. It is a part of distributed decision making to "
"create such flows."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:604
#, no-wrap
msgid "The continuity crew"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:607
msgid ""
"While the crisis is consuming the attention of our key decision makers this "
"is the time for their deputies or for the more experienced members of the "
"crew to *take over the day to day business* of the organisation in so far as "
"it continues. Rapid transfer of authority coupled with checks to make sure "
"that key decisions are not inhibited by past practice is the order of the "
"day."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:608
#, no-wrap
msgid "The data analytics crew"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:611
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Data informed decisions* are key in a crisis but conventional departments "
"need to keep day to day operations running.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:613
msgid ""
"We need to cherry pick a mixture of bright young people as well as some "
"experienced people, some academics and some strategic designers and get them "
"working fast."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:615
msgid ""
"They can also *activate and synthesise weak signal detection using human "
"sensor networks."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:616
#, no-wrap
msgid "The healing crew"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:619
msgid ""
"Again not the conventional group here but a crew with *organisational "
"development and personal health specialists* that include some of the cynics "
"from the organisation to help."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:621
msgid ""
"The cynics in any group are the ones who care enough to speak truth unto "
"power and we have never needed them more. Attitudinal pulses and "
"organisational horizon scanning carried out by this crew will allow us to "
"create a powerful decision support capability but will also allow us to "
"carry our employees with us on what will be a difficult journey."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:622
#, no-wrap
msgid "Adapt in complexity - Distribute engagement"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:625
msgid ""
"We need distributed sensor networks and fast feedback loops to detect and "
"manage weak signals:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:627
msgid "collect the experiences of staff and stakeholders as the crisis unfolds;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:628
msgid ""
"visualise the dispositional state of the organisation analysing the "
"experiences;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:629
msgid ""
"detect opportunities to increase the number of stories that get us closer to "
"a beneficial transition."
msgstr ""

#. type: Block title
#: en.adoc:630
#, no-wrap
msgid "Distributed human sensors networks"
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:633
msgid ""
"Cognitively, culturally and experientially diverse groups of people to whom "
"we have direct access, assessing the situation independently of each other "
"without the chance of cross connection."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:635
msgid ""
"Technology can be used to make those networks available in real time to "
"provide both situational assessment, option identification & evaluation "
"together with micro-scenarios planning. We will see more on this topic in "
"the next chapter."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:638
msgid ""
"The manner and timeliness by which we engage with the organisation and its "
"stakeholders requires substantial change from the periods of more "
"stability. Reporting cycles are usually too slow and formalised to cope with "
"fast paced events."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:640
msgid ""
"This means that we need to distribute the perception and accelerate the "
"exchange of information and knowledge, focusing on early detection of weak "
"signals. Then, we will make sense of all the observations using an abductive "
"approach to find patterns of coherence and ideas for intervention."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:642
msgid ""
"A contrast is often made between big data (algorithms) and thick data "
"(ethnographic studies). The former working of high volumes with basic but "
"not deep meaning, the latter working with lower volumes but with deeper "
"meaning emerging over longer periods of time. By making employees "
"ethnographers to their own environment we create rich data, quantitative in "
"nature, that can support sophisticated learning and decision making at all "
"levels of the organisation."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:644
msgid ""
"Visualising the dispositional state of the experiences of employees through "
"their own stories, anecdotal observations and perspectives, based on real "
"time data is not only possible but is proven in practice and provides a "
"quantitative approach in what is traditionally a qualitative domain."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:645
#, no-wrap
msgid "Consultation fatigue"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:650
msgid ""
"Most members of any modern organisation are subject to consultation "
"fatigue. What is key to ensure a good level of participation is not only the "
"perceived value of surveys but most importantly the ability of the "
"respondents to access the results for their own sense-making. + People are "
"not per se motivated by providing information to other people or to the "
"organisation, they need a return in terms of insights and knowledge. This "
"can be achieved by giving participants the ability to access the pool of "
"experiences. + Using the micro-narrative approach proposed here we can "
"create ‘narrative packs’ that provide local utility but which de facto add "
"participants (with their consent) into a human sensor network of "
"considerable power. This provides valuable material for decision support and "
"create more objectivity when making decisions under conditions of high "
"uncertainty. By using the wisdom of a crowd that is already engaged in "
"policy we can increase our ability to identify outliers and bring novelty to "
"the attention of senior decision makers."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:652
msgid "We have several options to engage the crowd in distributed exercises."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:653
#, no-wrap
msgid "MassSense"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:656
msgid ""
"In this mass situational assessment a network of human agents receives and "
"interprets (signify) a set of infographics, text, video, etc. creating "
"descriptive micro-narratives of their assessment. Optionally respondents can "
"contribute their own micro-scenarios describing their own perspective of "
"potential futures."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:657
#, no-wrap
msgid "Journalism and journal keeping"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:660
msgid ""
"Here a designated sample of the population keeps a daily, weekly or similar "
"journal relating to a topic and also act as journalists by interviewing "
"other people they know. Some of the most pioneering applications of this "
"technique have been to engage young people, working through schools, sports "
"clubs, churches and the like as ethnographers to their own communities. Once "
"such a network of employees journalists have been established, it can be "
"used as a human sensor network to provide fast feedback to questions by "
"responding to MassSense interventions as described above."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:661
#, no-wrap
msgid "Attitudinal mapping"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:664
msgid ""
"This is an alternative to the traditional survey and works on the basis of "
"asking respondents a question (ideally without any hypothesis) to generate a "
"micro-narrative which is then self signified by the respondent "
"directly. Material so gathered can also be re-signified by other designated "
"parties. Data results can be presented to decision makers (and to "
"respondents) in real time to show patterns for sense-making along with "
"various analytics."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:665
#, no-wrap
msgid "Navigating complexity"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:668
msgid ""
"Vector theory of change evolved from complexity theory and measures "
"direction and speed of travel, or intensity of effort from where we are."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:670
msgid ""
"Vector measures and fractal engagement pick up the idea of starting journeys "
"with a sense of direction vs having a pre-defined end-point. The "
"visualisation of data from the three capture methods above allows for a "
"simple question to be asked: \"What can we do tomorrow to create more "
"stories like these and fewer like those?\" This question can be asked of "
"anyone regardless of educational level and is non-pejorative in nature as "
"well as highly concrete and pragmatic."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:672
msgid ""
"In the figure below an attitudinal map, created in SenseMaker, a specialised "
"application, shows how the concentration of dots (each representing coherent "
"clusters of stories or observations) indicates a need to shift from the "
"alpha state to omega, but the distance of that shift is great and the risk "
"high. An alternative is to shift to an adjacent possible beta state before "
"moving to gamma and then to omega. For each move the decision maker and the "
"supporting group are able to click on the visualisation, see the underlying "
"micro-narratives and then ask the question outlined above. By continuously "
"updating the database with new stories resulting from the decisions taken, "
"it is possible to immediately visualise the new concentrations and "
"automatically adjust course, or correct without significant cost."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:674
msgid ""
"Using these maps we can define vector measures (direction, velocity, energy) "
"which can act as KPIs for complex environments. The addition of explanatory "
"narratives to statistically valid data provides explanations and a more "
"ready means for change."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:675
#, no-wrap
msgid "Fractal engagement"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:678
msgid ""
"The previous example shows one layer of engagement. From the same source "
"data we could represent the dispositional landscape of an entire "
"organisation, which would allow senior decision makers and cabinets to ask "
"“What can we do to create ….” and identify options for the generation of new "
"policy. We could also use only a part of that same dataset to enable for "
"example different departments, or different competence groups, to ask the "
"same question to their member. One question, different contexts."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:680
msgid ""
"This contextual alignment is key to cultural change and avoids the "
"homogenising effect of treating the whole system as single homogenous "
"entity."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:681
#, no-wrap
msgid "Advanced analytics & alerts"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:685
msgid ""
"The tools used to support these exercises should provide an open API "
"structure so that the results can be embedded in other tools. We should also "
"be able to export data for combination with big data material to create "
"richer sources of evidence. + The software should contain analytic and "
"reporting tools that can be used at a global and community level. The use of "
"real world narratives can create more effective communication and instant "
"narrative-based responses to negative tropes and “fake news”. These may be "
"emerging risks, or opportunities, but the key value of these alerts are "
"making decisions makers aware of when they need to pay attention; advanced "
"weak signal detection."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:686
#, no-wrap
msgid "Examples"
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ====
#: en.adoc:688
#, no-wrap
msgid "City of Malmö"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:691
msgid ""
"Malmö Municipal Government Executive Office commissioned a city wide "
"horizons scanning inquiry. It administered the approach through "
"collaborating with a youth organization who worked with the Cynefin Centre "
"to design a collection tool (app/website), train and coordinate 40 young "
"people on work placement to collect stories from across the city."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:694
msgid ""
"In year one the scanning addressed the biggest challenges and opportunities "
"facing the future of the city, mapping such issues against social, economic "
"and environmental aspects, as well as equality and inclusion. Over a 3 month "
"period a significant volume of micro-narratives were collected from a "
"variety of citizens. + In year two which is currently ongoing the center has "
"further developed the questions and has been sponsored by the municipal "
"government executive department in collaboration with the department for "
"planning. The stories and data collected will be used as a baseline and form "
"part of a longitudinal study of citywide horizons scanning and "
"planning. Within the first 2 months over 5,000 stories have been collected."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ====
#: en.adoc:695
#, no-wrap
msgid "Future Generations Commissioner for Wales ‘The People’s Platform’"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:698
msgid ""
"The people’s platform is a participatory initiative from the Future "
"Generations Commissioner of Wales, seeking to engage the people of Wales to "
"better understand and tackle:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:700
msgid "the biggest challenge facing the immediate future of Wales;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:701
msgid "the biggest challenge facing the longer term future (25 years +)."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:704
msgid ""
"It was designed to understand issues, crowd source potential actions and "
"interventions, as well as acting as a barometer on perceived responsibility "
"of business, communities, governments and public services.  It is used for "
"horizon scanning, planning and citizen involvement in priority "
"setting. Insights and recommendations from the People’s Platform have been "
"integrated throughout."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ====
#: en.adoc:705
#, no-wrap
msgid "Valleys Stories"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:708
msgid ""
"Stories of the Valleys is all about bringing to light the everyday, yet "
"important, conversations that occur in communities, schools, colleges, the "
"workplace, sports clubs and beyond to encourage people to explore and "
"understand key issues in their community, including new ways of addressing "
"these issues together."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:710
msgid "Live at https://valleysstories.com/en"
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ====
#: en.adoc:711
#, no-wrap
msgid "The Social Economy Diaries"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:714
msgid ""
"The diaries are a compilation of stories about the impact of social economy "
"in Europe and beyond. The exercise intends to show, through the voice of "
"practitioners, how a resilient, regenerative form of economy is not only "
"possible, it is actually a reality. Partecipants are asked to tell a story "
"about their experience and position it in a signification framerwork that "
"will offer insights on the specific needs of this economic ecosystem. The "
"project is run by the European Commission's Directorate General Joint "
"Research Centre in collaboration with Directorate General for Internal "
"Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:716
msgid "Live at: https://europa.eu/!xb89vD"
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:717
#, no-wrap
msgid "Adapt in complexity - Create a human sensor network"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:720
msgid ""
"Formal and informal networks developed in times of stability can be "
"activated for extraordinary needs:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:722
msgid ""
"equip your organisation with networks of people that have a special interest "
"in observing their context;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:723
msgid ""
"merge their journals with data collected using traditional tools like social "
"media analysis, data analysis, surveys and polls;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:724
msgid ""
"design customised journaling programmes and embed the activity in the "
"organisation's routine."
msgstr ""

#. type: Block title
#: en.adoc:725
#, no-wrap
msgid "Human perception and risk management"
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:728
msgid ""
"Both risk and opportunity emerge at the edges of human perception and "
"bringing the attention of decision makers to those weak signals is key."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:730
msgid ""
"The SEE-ATTEND-ACT framing argues that seeing the data, paying attention to "
"the data acting on it are separate processes. Given that we do not see what "
"we expect to see, this is a problem. Also the myriad of weak signals "
"presented to decision makers daily impacts on their ability to pay "
"attention, and even if they do pay attention, the willingness to act is "
"another matter. To give a real example, authorising military aircraft to "
"intervene against a hijacked civilian aircraft is an easy to decision to "
"make after the tragic events of 911, but before? The context then is one of "
"tragic accidents, not terrorism thwarted."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:732
msgid ""
"Creating a culturally, experientially and educationally diverse "
"sense-network provides confidence in decision making and increases the "
"probability of identifying outliers, or weak signals that will later prove "
"significant. Critically it also, of it nature, hardbacks advocacy into "
"evidence. The process of citizen engagement in distributed decision making "
"reduces the risk for political decision makers. The corollary also applies "
"in industry and the wider public sector."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:736
msgid ""
"The purpose of a human sensor network is to create an opportunity for "
"leaders and the wider organisation to gain real time situational assessment, "
"to evaluate options and to create, test and monitor micro-scenarios. The "
"SenseMaker approach to himan sensors networks, of which we saw an example "
"earlier, was developed for counter terrorism in DARPA projects before and "
"after the tragic events of 9/11. In that context, one of the requirements "
"was to create an objective approach to decision making where only adductive "
"logic -the logic of hunches - is appropriate. It drew on ideas popularly "
"known as the _wisdom of the crowds_, in which a cognitively, culturally and "
"experientially diverse network of respondents looks at a problem in parallel "
"without knowledge of each others choices. + This aids in identifying outlier "
"behaviour, giving voice to the 17% (see page 10)."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:738
msgid ""
"While such a network can be set up quickly in a crisis, it is preferable to "
"proactively have it in use for ordinary pourposes, so that agents in the "
"network become familiar with its function. Familiarity reduces learning and "
"adoption time; continuous use, and patterns in use, allow decision makers to "
"detect bias and enable anticipatoryawareness and triggering."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:740
msgid "Two other related approaches can be used, yet with some drawbacks."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:742
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Social media monitoring, data analysis, sentiment analysis* and the like "
"are part and parcel of understanding a market or citizen response. But "
"_anything that an algorithm can interpret and algorithm can create_. There "
"are dangers, for example, for social media to become an unbuffered, easily "
"manipulated feedback loop and as such to tend to perversion. However such "
"approaches have a necessary, even if not sufficient part in understanding "
"what is going on.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:744
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Polling and surveying a network with direct questions* have high utility "
"but capture ostensive or surface response and are subject to gaming. They "
"fail to capture nuances, reducing their ability to detect weak signals. They "
"are also less good at sentiment analysis and at understanding underlying "
"attitudes where choices are not binary but complex in nature. For these we "
"need the high abstraction signification of a sense-making approach as "
"discussed earlier.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:746
msgid ""
"The good news is that all organisations have the capacity, when aided, to "
"work with human sensor networks. This can be done most easily by designing a "
"work programme, for example, with Governments wishing to work "
"collaboratively with their citizens to create asymmetric advantage in the "
"face of threat."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:748
msgid ""
"The general approach is to provide people with tools they can use, and find "
"utility in, under day-to-day circumstances. These same tools in turn enable "
"capacity across the organisation to generate insights and take action."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:751
msgid ""
"There are many types of programmes to increase the number of human sensors "
"available in a network - either as conscripts or volunteers. To varying "
"degrees they apply to industry and government alike, but only government "
"would realistically have access to some of them.  The list is by no means "
"exhaustive but presents some examples to illustrate how these programmes "
"might work in practice."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:753
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Learning journals for new employees* during their induction period and "
"ideally for three to six months. In addition, they could perform weekly or "
"monthly interviews to senior staff and gain insight and experience into the "
"organisations' own history, to look specifically at possible futures. This "
"is also a way of getting access to senior staff who would not participate in "
"a consultancy process. A variation uses *programmes such as bring your "
"daughter to work and schools work experience*. Here the children are "
"assigned similar interviewing or observation tasks. Finally, executives or "
"managers on leadership development programmes could mix learning journals "
"with interviews for the duration of their programmes.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:755
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Replacing and augmenting traditional workbooks with continuous "
"journaling*. This approach was experimented with military personnel in "
"Afghanistan where company commanders replaced patrol reports with journals "
"in the field. There was no shortage of volunteers and the distributed human "
"sensor network combined with military sensors (drones, satellite scanning, "
"ground sensors, etc.) was extremely efficient to give real-time feedback. - "
"no more waiting for patrol reports to be collected and "
"synthesised. Variations were to *employ countries' commercial embassy staff* "
"to record details of activities and meetings in return for not writing "
"reports. The same applies to sales staff.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:757
msgid ""
"Many *schools have a requirement to teach research techniques and "
"statistical analysis along with community engagement*, in fact it is a key "
"part of the baccalauréat. By providing resource packs to teachers for pupils "
"to engage as citizen journalists in their communities as part of a school "
"year project, governments can very quickly gain access to the street stories "
"of local communities. This network can be activated in the event of a crisis "
"for feedback or communication. In a very real sense this also allows to "
"understand the current and future state of a community through the eyes of a "
"future generation. Similar programmes can be run for sports clubs, community "
"centres, church groups, scout groups and the like. All of them have a need "
"to understand why their various members engage, and make them a part of a "
"network. The approach can also be deployed in citizen assemblies, juries and "
"entire workforces or citizen groups for distributed budgeting. It provides a "
"more balanced selection than simple demographics, and produces wider "
"attitudinal maps."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title =
#: en.adoc:758
#, no-wrap
msgid "[<>] or the aporetic turn"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:761
msgid ""
"Even if we have followed the recommendations in the previous phases, at this "
"stage we still may not know what to do and we may not have committed to hard "
"choices."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:763
msgid ""
"We know that we are in a state of voluntary suspension, while the elements "
"for an informed decision are brewing and a sense of somehow optimistic "
"urgency is building up."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:765
msgid ""
"We are mapping the context and building evidence to get ready to move out of "
"confusion."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:766
#, no-wrap
msgid "The aporetic turn - Map landscapes from experiences"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:769
msgid ""
"Narratives give insights on the disposition of the organisation. They also "
"help identify agents, drivers of change, explicit and hidden boundaries, "
"informal processes, challenges and opportunities:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:770
msgid ""
"use narratives and micro-observations to identify agents, boundaries, roles "
"and processes;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:771
msgid "map the landscape by visualising relations, proximity, size, quantity;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:772
msgid ""
"position challenges and opportunities on the landscape. Take a step back and "
"observe."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:774
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Gather information*: in crisis we need a map (not a written report!) of the "
"current state (not of the future!). A map of the landscape informs decision "
"making with situational assessments and offers insights on the immediate "
"possible.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:776
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Experiences, not just data*: in complex systems it's not just about facts "
"and data. It is also (and maybe more importantly) how those facts are "
"interpreted by people and how they become thick experiences. Evidence needs "
"to be read through the filter of several personal interpretations, "
"expectations, projections to give insights of people's dispositions. The "
"stories collected in mass sense exercises are the ideal start.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:778
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Engage the organisation*: to capture weak signals of human attitudes and "
"dispositions we should start to produce narrative-based journals with the "
"team, to collect day-to-day stories. If not possible, we should organise "
"periodic work sessions to listen to their experience. We can then map this "
"into visual landscapes.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:780
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Maintain heterogeneity*: we need to entangle narratives as told by "
"executives, technical and operative staff, stakeholders. Multiple "
"perspectives keep us open minded on the crisis and give insights for "
"action.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:782
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Retrospective coherence*: when the crisis is over, everyone will create "
"narratives to explain what happened. We need to be ware of retrospective "
"coherence as it is based on faulty, selective memory and creates a false "
"sense of security towards the future.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:783
#, no-wrap
msgid "How to visualise a system"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:786
msgid ""
"The first step is to compile a list of key agents and lay them out on paper "
"freely, or following a framework of reference (i.e. see Wardley maps and REA "
"value flows models). To reduce bias and oversimplification, we should avoid "
"to draw the list of agents from theoretical knowledge or solely from "
"experts' opinions and interpretations: we want to *build the system from "
"real life experiences*."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:790
msgid ""
"Real life experiences place anecdotical facts in a rich context, providing "
"multiple layers of meaning and bringing to life one of the key principles of "
"management in complexity: *disintermediation*. This approach is common "
"practice in service design, where user experience matters more than ideal, "
"preferred or prescribed end results.  We should also engage with groups of "
"heterogeneous participants, while a proper balance between abstraction and "
"detail can be achieved by a well designed choreography.  A landscape is a "
"necessary starting point to:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:791
msgid ""
"map the current state and the key challenges and opportunities, or what we "
"can change;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:792
msgid ""
"identify ideas for action and decide what impacts we want to produce and how "
"to monitor them;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:793
msgid ""
"start pilot actions with the intent of amplifying the beneficial ones and "
"suppressing those who are failing."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:794
#, no-wrap
msgid "Hidden trap: feedback loops"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:797
msgid ""
"A common practice in systems thinking is to look for positive and negative "
"feedback loops among agents. While the idea in itself makes sense, often "
"feedback loops are infered from past experience or from theory abstracted "
"from a specific context. We need to avoid the temptation to automatically "
"determine the existence and/or the direction of any feedback loop. The only "
"loops we should include in our landscape are those that we can observe in "
"the current context and time frame."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:798
#, no-wrap
msgid "Governance"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:802
msgid ""
"A non-trivial question with deep implications is: who decides what we can "
"change, how we monitor change and what change we deem beneficial? If we are "
"managing well a complexity-informed method, the answers emerge from the same "
"group who is researching and acting in the landscape. This implies that "
"*leadership is expressed through engagement and empowerment* rather than "
"prescription and direction."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:804
msgid ""
"In this context, leaders become \"strategic observers\" and intervene to "
"provide a meta-level of coherence and clarity to facilitate action and the "
"exchange of knowledge."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:805
#, no-wrap
msgid "Representativeness"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:809
msgid ""
"A common objection to this method, often raised by scientists and academics, "
"is how representative a low number of experiences may be. How many "
"experiences are enough experiences? How can we base decision on incomplete "
"data? When addressing complexity, \"enough\" is \"all is needed to identify "
"emerging coherence\"."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:811
msgid ""
"Crisis management and more in general design activities, when understood as "
"discovery of emerging practices, are necessarily *local, ongoing and "
"experimental*. They must enable short term parallel, independent design "
"prototypes using available, incomplete knowledge, not provide a long term "
"panacea based on extensive evdence."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:812
#, no-wrap
msgid "Implications"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:815
msgid ""
"This suggests that public and private organisations that span several "
"different regions need to establish meaningful processes of stakeholder "
"engagement beyond user research to make sense of local experiences and build "
"whole ecosystems from the bottom-up."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:817
msgid ""
"When these practices are in place, the role of organisations naturally "
"shifts from \"holder of the solution\" to \"facilitator of coherent, "
"heterogeneous practices\" with obvious beneficial fallbacks in terms of "
"trust, transparency and cooperation."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:818
#, no-wrap
msgid "The aporetic turn - Demo: map a simple story"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:821
msgid ""
"A very simple exercise to deconstruct an experience and build a micro "
"landscape."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:822 en.adoc:890
#, no-wrap
msgid "Materials"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:825 en.adoc:893
msgid "A whiteboard or a large piece of paper."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:826 en.adoc:894
msgid "Markers and stickers."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:827 en.adoc:895
msgid "Phone or camera to document the final results with pictures."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:828 en.adoc:896
msgid "Whiteboard and stickers can be replaced with an online whiteboard."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:829 en.adoc:898
#, no-wrap
msgid "How to"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:832
msgid ""
"Ask your employees to *share several personal experiences* about the "
"crisis. Extend to beneficiaries and stakeholders when possible."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:834
msgid ""
"Use the stories to *identify agents and contexts or places*; be specific "
"(i.e. better \"local supermarket\" than \"retail\", or \"faulty data on "
"victims\" rather than \"fake news\"). Do not forget that, in complex "
"systems, narratives are agents: map them."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:836
msgid ""
"Place agents inside/outside/across places on the whiteboard. *Link agents "
"and stories*."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:838
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Mark boundaries and constraints*: hierarchies, rules, groups, physical "
"obstacles, etc.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:840
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Mark flows and relationships*. Avoid assuming strict cause and effect, look "
"for potential feedback loops. (i.e. more/less of this will cause more/less "
"of that).\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:843
msgid ""
"More stories give a better rendering of the situation.  If you plan to "
"collect a lot of stories, you should *ask experts for help and use dedicated "
"software*, such as Sensemaker."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:844 en.adoc:907
#, no-wrap
msgid "What to look for"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:847
msgid ""
"Look for the essential components of a system: roles, narratives, "
"boundaries, resources and processes. For sake of simplicity, in this demo, "
"agents are persons in a specific role. In reality any entity that interacts "
"with and changes the state of a system is considered an agent. For example "
"in human systems ideas and narratives are powerful agents. Deconstruct a "
"story looking for all agents, focus on their interaction and identfy all the "
"boundaries and relationships that emerge."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:851
msgid ""
"Do not simplify stories for fear of \"complicating\" the picture too "
"much. At this stage we need a high level of detail. Also, avoid the "
"temptation to categorise and to fit everything into matrixes. Categories and "
"matrixes are good to formalise results, not to explore a fuzzy context.  As "
"much as possible, perform a \"detached\", open observation from several "
"perspectives. We don't want only the picture painted by the 83%.  If you "
"feel uncomfortable in keeping things \"messy\" at the beginning, ask for "
"help from strategic or service designers."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:852
#, no-wrap
msgid "Deconstructing the story"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:855
msgid "The experience above is deconstructed in:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:856
#, no-wrap
msgid "*roles*: patients, medical staff;\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:857
#, no-wrap
msgid "*resources*: rooms, beds, masks, ventilators, respirators;\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:858
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*boundaries*: number of patients per medical staff, minimal distance between "
"staff and patients, minimal distance between patients, number of patients "
"per bed, number of beds per room, number of masks available, number of uses "
"per mask, etc.;\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:859
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*processes*: work shifts, patient examination, restocking of supplies, "
"purchase of equipment.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:863
msgid ""
"Combining several experiences would give depth to the landscape. If we were "
"interested in deepening specific parts of the landscape, we could go back to "
"the author with a draft illustration and further questions or even tap into "
"our own experience.  Once the story has been mapped out, we can then "
"experiment ways to manage or modify boundaries and ask the storytellers for "
"feedback.  They will give insights on the feasibility of the changes we "
"propose and on the dispositions that they may generate."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:864
#, no-wrap
msgid "The landscape"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:867
msgid ""
"We can now build a visual landscape starting from the deconstructed "
"experiences."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:869
msgid ""
"This helps to anchor any conversation to the whole, no matter how fine the "
"level of detail we are dealing with. Layers will help to break down thick "
"data into manageable overlays."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:871
msgid ""
"The first drafts will be very \"messy\" and hard to read: this is "
"normal. The process of refining the representation by iterating several "
"different solutions is a reflective activity that produces mental clarity, "
"its value goes beyond the visual quality of the final result. This routine "
"is most useful if performed with senior managers, as it helps to materialise "
"\"invisible\" patterns. It also provides a holistic opportunity to discover "
"new relationships, flows, insights."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:873
msgid ""
"For this exercise, we prioritize abstraction versus figurative "
"approaches. We are more interested in the essence of the context and its "
"challenges than in a detailed but confusing illustration. The final product "
"will inform and coordinate the activity of independent crews and will "
"provide a base to collect the result of their work."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:874
#, no-wrap
msgid "The challenges"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:877
msgid ""
"Once the landscape is fixed, we can use it to highlight contextual "
"disruptions, challenges, opportunities."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:879
msgid ""
"The challenges can be infered from the facts presented butalso from the tone "
"ofthe story."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:881
msgid ""
"A well defined challenge is an ideal starting point to form mission-based "
"crews. Placing a challenge on the map helps the crews to focus on a problem "
"while considering peripheral elements that could otherwise be ignored and/or "
"go unnoticed."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:883
msgid ""
"It is worth remembering that a particular challenge may accept solutions of "
"very different nature, some of which may be clear and apparent, some more "
"complicated and others complex, each requiring a different set of skills, "
"resouces and timeframes. The next method helps to identify the nature of "
"distinct potential solutions to the same challenge."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:884
#, no-wrap
msgid "The aporetic turn - Discover opportunities for change"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:887
msgid ""
"The response to a challenge varies depending on its nature and on its "
"context. Lack of time, resources or knowledge may turn an otherwise clear "
"decision into a battle against chaos:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:888
msgid ""
"identify the nature of challenges in a given context as a precondition for "
"action;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:889
msgid "use the exercise described below to define potential responses."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:897
msgid ""
"This exercise can be run retrospectively to understand how a set of "
"challenges was addressed in previous occasions and reflect if the decision "
"was the most appropriate, given the context."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:901
msgid ""
"Source a flipchart or a large piece of paper. Copy the four corners of the "
"diagram on the right (Clear, Complicated, Complex and Chaotic) and place "
"\"Confused\" in the centre."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:902
msgid "Place the challenge in \"Confused\"."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:903
msgid ""
"Ask the crew to brainstorm individually on potential decisions/solutions "
"that could address the challenge. Time this step and assign a maximum of 10 "
"minutes."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:904
msgid ""
"Bring the crew in a plenary session and ask in turn to each member to list "
"her decisions/solutions. Discuss with the rest of the group where to place "
"the descision/solution. You can assign a maximum time limit to each "
"intervention."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:905
msgid ""
"Ask the crew to vote on the decisions and solutions that seem most "
"realistic."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:906
msgid ""
"Commit the resources needed to start action on the most voted solution. Keep "
"your options open to test other solutions or run solutions in parallel."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:910
msgid ""
"We loook for alternative ways to address an issue, tapping into novel, "
"emerging and existing practices. If we are in crisis, clear and complicated "
"solutions may not be realistic or possible."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:912
msgid ""
"The formalised processes necessary for *clear* solutions may have been "
"disrupted and we may not have the time to conduct the studies we need to "
"solve *complicated* issues. But it is still worth a shot to keep these "
"options on the map, in case conditions change."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:914
msgid ""
"A solution is *complex* if we cannot guarantee in advance its beneficial "
"effects. We will need several experiments and monitoring systems to detect "
"the option with the most beneficial impacts."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:916
msgid ""
"In *chaotic* solutions it's not just the impact to be unknown: the response "
"itself is novel and it may fail badly. We will most likely try to use any "
"available resource, creating the conditions for radical "
"repurposing. Solutions that originate in this quadrant have high innovative "
"potential but will be expensive and may fail at any time."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title =
#: en.adoc:917
#, no-wrap
msgid "Exapt"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:920
msgid ""
"The time for action has come. Yet, we have still too much uncertainty for an "
"elaborate plan, we need to exapt."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:922
msgid ""
"Exaptation in evolutionary biology indicates the repurposing of an artifact, "
"a trait or a module developed through natural selection. Feathers, for "
"example, were initially intended as a form of communication before they were "
"used for flight."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:924
msgid ""
"In organisational terms, exaptation indicates a process of radical "
"repurposing of roles, processes, paradigms, values. It is a state of action "
"that emerges after critically observing the present while (sometimes "
"frantically) creating the structures and the conditions for the organisation "
"to adapt."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:925
#, no-wrap
msgid "Exapt - Repurpose"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:928
msgid ""
"The most efficient way to address crisis is through exaptation (radical "
"repurposing) of available assets:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:930
msgid ""
"use the material produced by the sensing networks to inform design briefs "
"and missions;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:931
msgid ""
"complement design briefs with a scan of current assets to spot what can be "
"repurposed."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:933
msgid ""
"The repurposing process in itself will generate additional "
"learnings. Integrate them with the knowledge provided by the sensing "
"networks and build a base for transitioning out of crisis."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:935
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Exaptation in biology* is the suggestion that a trait which has adapted in "
"time for one function can, under different conditions, exapt for a different "
"purpose. The idea itself is not new having been contemplated by Darwin. It "
"has also been known as pre-adaptation but the idea that this implied some "
"teleological process was in part responsible for Gould and Vrba coining the "
"neologism in 1982. They use it to define two types of “cooptation”. Quoting "
"them directly:\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:937
msgid ""
"a chapter, previously shaped by natural selection for a particular function "
"(an adaptation), is coopted for a new use;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:938
msgid ""
"a chapter whose origin cannot be ascribed to the direct action of natural "
"selection (a nonaptation) is coopted for a current use."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:941
msgid ""
"There is an implication that following exaptation the trait will then adapt "
"to changing needs. The trait may not be fully suited to to its new use and "
"will therefore adapt as a secondary process. + The development was important "
"in evolutionary biology as it explained how new traits could emerge more "
"quickly than would be possible in a linear way. The often quoted example is "
"the evolution of feathers for temperature regulation and display, which were "
"then repurposed for flight. Speculation as to how this happened includes "
"fast running ground reptiles, where their feathers provided lift, or gliding "
"between trees."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:944
msgid ""
"Once the exaptive shift is made we get sophisticated adaption, for example "
"the “silencers” that evolved in the wings of owls and the use of feathers "
"for trapping insects in other species. + Another example of exaptation is "
"the cerebellum which adapted for fine grained manipulation of muscles linked "
"to feeding, but then exapted to manage the sophistication of grammar in "
"human language; something that would be too big a switch for an adaptive "
"process."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:946
msgid ""
"This is not just a biological phenomena, there are many examples of "
"*exaptation in industry and tehnology*."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:948
msgid ""
"IBM famously re-purposed an 18th century invention, punched cards, to create "
"the ‘IBM Card’ with rectangular holes for easier patenting and machine "
"readability which was one of the major factors giving it leadership in the "
"early days of data processing."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:950
msgid ""
"Another very famous case occurred in 1945 when Percy Spencer, a Raytheon "
"engineer noticed that a chocolate bar in his pocket started to melt in "
"proximity to an active radar set. He realised that the short wave radiation "
"arising from the cavity magnetron in the set, if confined to a metal box, "
"would cook food. From this repurposing we get the micro-wave oven. The 1989 "
"discovery of Viagra by Pfizer came from a programme looking for a treatment "
"for heart-related chest pain. Realising the significance of a curious side "
"effect created a blockbuster drug."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:953
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*In organisations*, radical repurposing is efficient in terms of time, "
"reducing significantly time to market as well as to find solutions in a "
"crisis. The ability to rapidly repurpose existing capability, knowledge and "
"connectivity is also critical in crisis management and post-crisis "
"recovery. It is strongly linked to the idea of entanglement in complexity "
"science. +\n"
"At the right level of granularity, if we are able to see its potential, "
"*combinations of existing knowledge with new or previously unarticulated "
"needs* provide a significant opportunity. The growing understanding of this "
"and its application to social systems as well as physical products is "
"critical to understanding innovation and post-crisis recovery.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:955
msgid ""
"The use of exaptation as a means of exploiting new opportunities generated "
"by commoditisation or significant ecological shifts is a developing theory "
"in management. The common saying is that we should interpret crisis as an "
"opportunity to evolve and innovate. In crisis, old patterns are destroyed "
"and spaces for novel practice open up; the ability to exploit those spaces "
"ensures resilience and creates spaces for disruptive innovation."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:956
#, no-wrap
msgid "Types of exaptation in organisations"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:959
msgid ""
"In organisations, exaptation is a process that repurposes or redesigns "
"existing resources. If the process is unexpected and forced by crisis and "
"chaos, we call it *stress-based exaptation*; if it is a voluntary excursion "
"in chaos, we call it *stimulated exaptation*. Finally, if it is a "
"consolidated practice we call it *dispositional exaptation*."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:961
msgid "We will discover more about these states in the next pages."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:962
#, no-wrap
msgid "Stress-based exaptation - Extreme repurposing"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:965
msgid ""
"Unexpected events brought us unintentionally into chaotic processes that can "
"have catastrophic consequences on us and on our context: repurpose whatever "
"at hand to stabilise the situation and, if possible, to limit catastrophic "
"effects."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:967
msgid ""
"This corresponds to the area of accidental chaos in the Cynefin framework "
"and it is the most likely to occur in crisis."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:969
msgid ""
"This happens naturally in any human system under conditions of stress. In a "
"real crisis humans are very good at simply grabbing something (which can be "
"an idea as well as a material object) and rapidly using it to fix (or "
"throwing it to) an issue or problem."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:972
msgid ""
"This human inventiveness is something we can depend on but its results can "
"be haphazarduous and are not without casualties. + There is also the danger "
"of the resulting pattern of solutions becoming entrained beyond "
"usefulness. We can reduce the inevitable high failure rate by employing a "
"crew that is very well trained in lateral thinking. This is the ideal job "
"for the probing crew we set up earlier."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:973
#, no-wrap
msgid "Extreme repurposing in COVID-19"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:976
msgid ""
"In the firts phases of the COVID-19 crisis we had several cases of radical "
"repurposing initiated by informal groups of scientists, doctors, engineers "
"and designers to cope with the shortage of medical items."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:978
msgid ""
"The successful examples of extreme repurposing often made it to national and "
"international news. From the 3D printed adaptor that repurposed a scuba "
"diving mask to the 3D printed valve that duplicated the capacity of a "
"respirator. Many businesses even stepped up and repurposed their "
"manufacturing lines to produce items that were hard to source. As to be "
"expected, some of the solutions broke existing legislative boundaries and, "
"for example, challenged existing intellectual property and licensing rights."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:980
msgid ""
"In most cases, these radically innovative products were ideated and produced "
"by the joint efforts of coordinated, informal networks that emerged "
"spontaneously, supported by online connectivity."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:982
msgid ""
"Spontaneous networks also emerged to share practices and knowledge on online "
"platforms."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:984
msgid ""
"It is worth noting how *no economic instrument or expected income* was "
"sponsoring or supporting these purpose-driven movements and is most likely "
"at the root of their success and diffusion."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:985
#, no-wrap
msgid "Stimulated exaptation - Design radical innovation"
msgstr ""

#. type: Block title
#: en.adoc:987
#, no-wrap
msgid "Boundary objects"
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:990
msgid ""
"We create strong emotional bonds with objects that are part of our day to "
"day routine when they connect us to special experiences, memories or "
"people. They become the symbol of that experience, or person."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:992
msgid ""
"Other objects have deep impact on our emotions because they were passed on "
"to us through generations and became material symbols of the values of our "
"culture. Think of any religious object, for example."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:994
msgid ""
"Boundary objects challenge the symbolic meaning of an object by giving it an "
"unexpected function or by de-contextualising it."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:996
msgid ""
"In extreme cases, the new function or the new context becomes an insult to "
"the object and to ourselves. We went \"too far\"."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:998
msgid ""
"In other cases, and these are the interesting ones, the object is placed "
"within acceptable boundaries. It becomes a provocation but also and an "
"opportunity to reconsider normality."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:1000
msgid ""
"Often, artists and designers use these boundary objects as statements. An "
"example is one of the works of Curro Claret, a spanish product designer, who "
"proposed a church bench that can be easily disassembled and transformed into "
"a bed for the homeless."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:1002
msgid ""
"Other times, designers use boundary objects to understand people's "
"dispositions towards certain scenarios and to inform their ideation "
"porocesses."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1005
msgid ""
"This is a design approach that deeply questions fundamental paradigms: needs "
"and knowledge are independently mapped and then entangled to create novel "
"combinations. We need to think in concepts and metaphors, move the "
"reflection from the material immediate to a level of abstract signification "
"which opens us to more disruptive insights. In this sense, this is more a "
"competence to be nurtured, discovered or imported in the organisation, "
"rather than a set of methods and tools to adopt or apply."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1009
msgid ""
"Concrete experiences and anecdotes about the unfolding crisis are the raw "
"material that feeds this design approach. They facilitate the generation of "
"insights by enriching with thick data the design and decision making "
"process, while keeping the reflection grounded on the present. + Experiences "
"can be collected directly from our organisation and/or its beneficiaries and "
"analysed with specialised software. Here, the level of abstraction is "
"achieved by the signification framework which which taps into the symbolic "
"side of the stories. + In speculative design approaches, conceptual "
"prototypes materialise in a tangible object or organisational structure a "
"potential but concrete experience that challenges our preconceptions, "
"paradigms and assumptions. Their role is not to serve as functional "
"prototypes of a concrete solution, they are a tool for exploring the "
"invisible adjacent possible. They generate a \"feedback experience\" that is "
"realistic enough to detect dispositions and to inspire further "
"decisions. The results of this exercises of voluntary exaptation open the "
"door to radical, unbounded innovation which can find fertile ground when "
"crisis itself pushes us to questions our fundamental paradigms."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:1010
#, no-wrap
msgid "Stimulated exaptation in COVID-19"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1013
msgid ""
"The COVID-19 crisis challenged our \"normal\" ways to understand work, "
"entertainment, tourism, personal and social responsibility, etc. Some "
"organisations and institutions transformed this unexpected incursion into "
"chaos into a deliberate opportunity to (re)design their practices, for "
"example embracing and experimenting with radical forms of teleworking."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:1014
#, no-wrap
msgid "Speculative design at the EU Policy Lab"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1017
msgid ""
"In the picture, a group of students from the École Supérieure d'Art et "
"Design de Saint-Étienne present boundary objects to Policy Officer at the "
"European Commission to reflect on the future of farmers."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1019
msgid ""
"The prototypes were used to broaden the understanding of policy implications "
"of potential technological, social and environmental weak signals."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1021
msgid ""
"The exercise was tutored by Rodolphe Dogniaux, design professor at the École "
"Supérieure d'Art et Design de Saint-Étienne in cooperation with Jennifer "
"Rudkin, Anne-Katrin Bock and Maciej Krzysztofowicz from the European "
"Commission's EU Policy Lab."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1023
msgid "More information on this project at: https://europa.eu/!jw69nk"
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:1024
#, no-wrap
msgid "Dispositional exaptation - Design strategic interventions"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1028
msgid ""
"Challenge the interactions between agents to inform strategic decisions. It "
"is more effective than pre-determining an objective:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1030
msgid ""
"use the material produced by the sensing networks to craft conceptual "
"scaffoldings;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1031
msgid ""
"use the scaffoldings to challenge roles, question the problem space while "
"maintaining coherence;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1032
msgid ""
"design harvesting methods and templates to collect knowledge and to inform "
"strategic decisions."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1034
msgid "This corresponds to the area of complexity in the Cynefin framework."
msgstr ""

#. type: Block title
#: en.adoc:1035
#, no-wrap
msgid "Conceptual scaffoldings"
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:1038
msgid ""
"The most popular example of conceptual scaffoldings used in business are the "
"so-colled canvases. They are a combination of pre-defined empty spaces that "
"function as enabling boundaries."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:1040
msgid ""
"These templates help to collect the essential elements of a business and to "
"think systematically to all its key contributors, beneficiaries, assets and "
"liabilities. They are mostly used to inform abstract strategic thinking and "
"concrete business plans."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:1042
msgid ""
"A new generation of conceptual scaffoldings is part of the ongoing design "
"research at the EU Policy Lab. These are visual frameworks that position "
"dimensions, agents, resources in a relational framework."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:1045
msgid ""
"They are highly contextual and the position of each component encapsulates "
"dense, specific knowledge captured in action research."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:1047
msgid ""
"Like traditional canvases, they function as support for systematic and "
"strategic thinking, but the emphasis on a visual approach unlocks "
"possibilities to use them as dashboards or as synthetic snapshots of the "
"status of complex entities."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:1049
msgid ""
"They are mostly used in contexts where it is impossible to categorise or "
"define agents according to one key dimension because of their organic, "
"ecosystemic nature."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1052
msgid ""
"Here we create organisational structures and processes that naturally create "
"novel associations. This is a key feature of strategic design, beyond the "
"linear and de-contextualised application of \"thinking\" methods and tools "
"to *create spaces for co-generation and shared sense-making*. In this "
"spaces, the exaptive role of design is to orchestrate multiple contributions "
"in a coherent conversation, facilitate lateral thinking, harvest challenges, "
"propose new actionable ideas and test them with proofs of concepts and "
"prototypes."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1056
msgid ""
"In this process it is key to reduce blare, bluster and brawl. Conceptual "
"scaffoldings, crafted choreographies and harvesting templates are of primary "
"importance for this. + *Choreographies* ritualise the exchange of "
"information and modulate the rythm of the interventions giving space to "
"individual contributions, group work and plenary sense making and "
"alignment. *Harvesting templates* anchor converations in actionable outputs, "
"while *scaffoldings* help to maintain focus but keep the door open to "
"weaving several perspectives. + Tree methods and approaches create the "
"preconditions for strategic design:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1058
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Social network stimulation* allows a generative use of informal "
"networks. It ensures that everyone in an organisation (and ideally its "
"proximate networks) is within two/three degrees of separation based on a "
"trusted common set of experiences. With a densely created network and proper "
"design facilitation, ideas and associations will emerge organically.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1060
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Triads* are groups of three people from radically different backgrounds "
"with no prior interaction. They are kept together by purpose and by well "
"crafted choreographies which ritualise the exchange of knowledge and create "
"trans-disciplinary possibilities. Harvesting templates catalyse the creation "
"of actionable knowledge.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1062
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Staged, highly structured events* allow experts from many different "
"backgrounds to interact with people who experience first hand the various "
"current issues and problems. A series of action-based research experiments "
"take problems and knowledge assets into easily understood ‘grains’ which are "
"then associated to create novel ideas.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:1063
#, no-wrap
msgid "Scaffolding at the EU Policy Lab"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1066
msgid ""
"In the picture, a \"next generation\" canvas is used as scaffolding to "
"identify and visually represent the identity of a social economy activity."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1068
msgid ""
"Social economy in Europe lacks a comprehensive definition and the intention "
"here is to maintain a broad perspective to facilitate the development of "
"inclusive policies. The team, composed by practitioners, designers and "
"policy makers, opted to use a visual scaffolding structured in triads that "
"provides an integrated view of 54 key dimensions."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1070
msgid ""
"This approach allows to immediately identify a company's priorities across "
"the triple bottom line of social, environmental and economic regeneration "
"(green triad) and compare it, for example, with local and regional "
"priorities (red triad)."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1072
msgid "More information on this project at: https://europa.eu/!jc88ph"
msgstr ""

#. type: Title =
#: en.adoc:1073
#, no-wrap
msgid "Transcend"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1076
msgid ""
"In the path toward transcending the crisis, most of our initial structure "
"may have dramatically changed or disappeared altogether."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1078
msgid ""
"It is time to ritualise and consolidate change, avoiding the temptation to "
"return to practices that are now cearly obsolete."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1080
msgid "But is it the end?"
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:1081
#, no-wrap
msgid "Manage cadence and control"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1085
msgid ""
"At this point we should have several units operating in ways that are novel "
"for the organisation:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1087
msgid ""
"maintain cadence and control. If we lose coherence, we may quickly spiral "
"back into chaos;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1088
msgid ""
"identify what novel activity should be part of the new normal and what "
"should be reverted to previous practices;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1089
msgid ""
"ritualise the learnings, especially those that originate from failures, to "
"ensure that we are ready for the next crisis."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:1090
#, no-wrap
msgid "Cadence"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1093
msgid "Cadence matters more than velocity if we seek stability and endurance."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1098
msgid ""
"In management, review cycles are what create cadence. During conditions of "
"high stability, cadence can be slow and the subjects reviewed are usually "
"quite repetitive. In a crisis the pace will be fast, but there needs to be a "
"rhythm to it, commonly understood between all actors. Priorities can be "
"selected ad-hoc within small, tightly focused teams who can expect or "
"enforce compliance. + *Daily or quasi-daily cycles* in small teams serve the "
"purpose of addressing urgency and uncertainty, when a changing context "
"generates constant shifts in priorities. A small number of participants "
"allows more effective decision making, and all need to be present. + *Weekly "
"feedback cycles* help to align several functions and will replace various "
"forms of written reporting. Representatives of all functions should "
"participate with a fairly relaxed approach to who turns up. Absent members "
"will need to be kept up to speed so we need to evaluate how costly that "
"is. + The ability to shift to *bi-weekly cycles* indicates that we have "
"reached a certain level of stability. We are reducing the pace while "
"activities keep moving fast. The ideal is to increase velocity while "
"reducing cadence of review, which reduces the energy cost of management."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1103
msgid ""
"Regardless of its frequence, the critical thing is to *find a rhythm which "
"allows for stability*. It is also crucial not to overlap uncoordinated "
"sessions, as the punctuated information flows could add unmanageable noise "
"or generate lack of awareness. If we consider this in terms of flow we are "
"creating a cadence that prevents the flow from becoming turbulent. In a "
"crisis, and recovery of a crisis, all key actors need to be aware of "
"decisions and the reasons for those decisions, there isn’t time to read "
"emails, check a project management Kanban board or similar: we just need to "
"know. Information management is key and can’t be left to chance or mediated "
"reports. + At Cognitive Edge, the management of cadence is helping to "
"advance a major software release, while at the EU Policy Lab it is helping "
"to provide fast response to very sensitive, high profile projects. + *The "
"size of a unit* (a short hand that includes teams, crews, hierarchies and "
"networks) has some natural limits; the Cynefin diagram at page 60 shows team "
"size, membership criteria and temporality. + We need to be aware that crisis "
"management teams tend to get very close to each other during the crisis "
"itself. Peer support and extended walk-the-floor breaks are among the "
"techniques we can use to avoid that they get completely isolated from "
"reality. More importantly when the crisis is over the team needs to disband "
"and that change has to be ritualised. Knowing when we have crossed the "
"boundary from adaptation to recovery is important and it requires a rite of "
"passage."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:1104
#, no-wrap
msgid "Control"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1108
msgid ""
"Crisis control should be relaxed. Most likely, there will be no loss of "
"quality as the overall perception of risk changes. At the start of COVID in "
"the UK authorisation for critical public projects were granted in days or "
"hours where before it would have taken months. The fundamental steps of the "
"control processes were still there but their use was accelerated and "
"unnecessary steps removed. As the crisis receded, two things happened: a "
"grass roots romanticism wanted to continue with the freedom provided, while "
"those who would carry the can for the risk started to realise the potential "
"implications of post-crisis audit and reverted to business as usual. Now "
"both of these responses are wrong but the pendulum swing between "
"crisis-induced freedom and the reimposition of bureaucratic controls is "
"inevitable unless we address it."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1110
msgid "Three devices come to help."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1112
msgid ""
"Key actors performing *continuous journaling*: realtime feedback loops and "
"human sensor networks in which observers journal changes in process and "
"carry out micro risk assessments. This is useful for operational management, "
"weak signal detection and the like. Post-crisis, journaling gives an "
"evidence base to work out what can be changed permanently and what should be "
"returned to normal. We build expertise in this during the crisis with peer "
"to peer narrative learning, for example."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1114
msgid ""
"Teams using the evidence from the journaling and other information sources "
"to *look at reform* before we get to far away from the crisis. For example "
"five or six crews each formed by an auditor, a frontline worker and a "
"manager work on the problem in parallel to spot reform possibilities or to "
"experiment with safe-to fail changes."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1116
msgid ""
"Identify the *human elements* involved in quality decision making. Some "
"people are better at it than others, but it can also be a professional "
"issue. For example there is a significant difference between hospitals run "
"by professional managers and those run by former doctors trained in "
"management. The latter have a broader knowledge of the implications of "
"decisions and understand that it is a context specific matter."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1118
msgid ""
"A part of our change may be to define the boundary conditions within which "
"autonomy can be permitted. That includes rules about expectations and "
"heuristics to come into operation when rules are broken."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:1119
#, no-wrap
msgid "Transcend - Ritualise learning"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1122
msgid ""
"We learn more from failures than success, and the learnings are more "
"reliable if lessons are recorded and formalised when they are still fresh:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1124
msgid "simulate failures as a method to increase resilience;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1125
msgid "de-personalise failure and avoid blame;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1126
msgid "start a mass engagement process to ritualise learning."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1128
msgid ""
"Games have always had an adult purpose, from political simulation to war "
"games. They provide a safe learning environment to test strategies and "
"tactics with immediate feedback. Two examples will show how games can "
"prepare us for crisis and train us to learn from our failures."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:1129
#, no-wrap
msgid "Anthro-simulation"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1135
msgid ""
"Anthro-simulation involves human game masters controlling an eco-system "
"where whatever we do, we fail. We create parallel teams in an open space who "
"are presented with a (crisis) situation for which they have to complete a "
"situational assessment and come up with a next steps action plan. + Each "
"work area has microphones so the game masters can hear the conversation, for "
"two reasons: to monitor how the decisions are being made and to allow them "
"to feed disruptive data in real-time. + After some time, which depends on "
"the urgency that we want to give to the exercise, the teams are given a one "
"hour break. When they come back they discover that whatever they did turns "
"out to be a disaster. This is easily done by picking up a weak signal that "
"they missed and extrapolating it. The cycle is repeated three times and "
"after the second time everyone start to realise that they are doomed. + "
"Because it is happening in parallel to other teams this is not personal and "
"by the end of the process, the amount of data being scanned before a "
"decision increases significantly. *Failure engenders more learning than "
"success*. Through out the process all team members and observers journal "
"their experience into a sense-making database. That creates a narrative "
"learning environment of simulation failures that can be used as a knowledge "
"repository."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:1136
#, no-wrap
msgid "Archetypes"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1139
msgid ""
"Linked to the idea of games is the displacement of confession into fictional "
"story forms including the use of archetypes. Archetypal story forms "
"historically have been used to distribute learning of failure without the "
"need to admit personal. An example are the stories of the Mullah Nasrudin, "
"the wise fool. In societies familiar with such stories, if we do something "
"foolish we create a story about how the Mullah did it, and it then spreads "
"without attribution of blame. In a lessons learned environment it is a "
"powerful and easy-to-use technique, and more ethical than exhorting people "
"to be open about failure. Hindsight often point to something we could have "
"done differently. By displacing failures onto archetypal characters we "
"effectively allow people to use an actual experience, a synthesis of "
"experiences, or a just-so story to convey learning to the current and "
"following generations. Lessons learned is not a drains up search for the "
"truth, it is about creating learning, which can come from fiction as much as "
"from fact."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ===
#: en.adoc:1140
#, no-wrap
msgid "Learning from crisis"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1143
msgid ""
"So how does all of this link to our theme of post-crisis recovery? Well "
"first and foremost is that the trauma of the crisis will have generated "
"*multiple learning opportunities* and we need to formalise them before they "
"fade over time. So in our four-stage Assess-Adapt-Exapt-Transcend we need at "
"the end to focus on learning, prepare for the next crisis, and ritualise "
"that learning as a means of understanding that we have moved on. The "
"initiation of a highly visible and mass engagement learning process is a way "
"of signaling the end of a crisis and the need to move on."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1145
msgid "Seven key possible uses of narratives here:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1151
msgid ""
"We save the *simulation stories with the real-time journaling*. Narrative "
"databases disclose complex patterns of meaning over time and allow "
"serendipitous encounters with material we didn’t expect to find. + We give "
"our workforce access to the stories and *use narrative clusters to stimulate "
"new stories* about how we could have done better. We also save those new "
"stories and we link them to their originating material. The material can be "
"used to review the rules we had put in place and to stimulate planning based "
"on micro scenarios. + We *create scenarios from the anthro-simulation games* "
"for key players (or ideally all the workforce) allowing the learning to be "
"embedded while the need to learn is still front and centre. We don’t wait "
"until everyone has forgotten what happened! + We *combine the situational "
"stories with a narrative audit of existing capabilities and assets* to "
"suggest ways in which we can radically repurpose things we are already "
"competent in, for novel purpose. This will also provide opportunities to "
"gain a competitive advantage of the novel situation that a post-crisis "
"always brings. The artifacts of the crisis management process become a part "
"of the strategic and tactical process thereafter. The *widest possible "
"engagement is important* and that can extend to customers, citizens, retired "
"employees as well as potential recruits still in college. The more "
"perspectives we get, the better. + The material thus gathered creates "
"training *datasets* that will allow anticipatory triggers for early signs of "
"a future crisis; this is also known as weak signal detection and includes "
"warning of excessive constraints which could bring our organisation to "
"collapse into chaos. *Micro-narratives and mass participation* provide a "
"more effective source of material for effective internal and external "
"communication than carefully formulated statements. Similar control, but a "
"lot more effective."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1153
msgid ""
"The process of managing and exiting from a crisis becomes now a process of "
"creating a sense-making infra-structure that will sustain the organisation "
"into the future."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:1154
#, no-wrap
msgid "The Cynefin framework"
msgstr ""

#. type: Block title
#: en.adoc:1156 en.adoc:1218
#, no-wrap
msgid "Cynefin"
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:1159
msgid ""
"The practices and competences contained in this booklet are inspired by and "
"reinforce a conceptual framework designed to manage anthro-complexity, or "
"complexity in human systems."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1162
msgid ""
"Cynefin is a decision support framework. It is a way of determining what "
"method or approach we should adopt while critically assessing when we should "
"change it."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1164
msgid ""
"It is based on the principle of bounded applicability: there are few if any "
"context-free solutions but many valid context-specific ones."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1166
msgid ""
"In crisis, the framework helps to generate a transitional path from a state "
"of puzzlement, or aporia, to a state of adaptive reaction and finally to "
"transcend, innovate and learn."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1168
msgid ""
"Cynefin is a key framework in what is known as naturalising sensemaking. The "
"term naturalising relates to the use of natural science. Sense-making (with "
"a hyphen) is defined as “how do we make sense of the world so we can act in "
"it\". Cynefin is also part of a body of work looking at the correct balance "
"between deductive, inductive and abductive sensemaking."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1170
msgid "In summary the essence of the framework can be summarised as follows;"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1172
msgid ""
"At its heart there are three primary domains: _order_, _complexity_ and "
"_chaos_ *defined by the type of constraint*, or absence thereof. _Order_ is "
"constrained to the point where future outcomes are predictable as long as "
"the constraints can be sustained, _Chaos_ is the absence of effective "
"constraint while _complex_ is uncertain but has *enabling constraints*, many "
"levels of entanglement that make it dispositional in nature with no linear "
"material causality."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1174
msgid ""
"Most organisations are by nature complex adaptive systems where needs and "
"requirements entangle with identities, cultural practices, personal "
"preferences and values, challenging and interpreting even the most strict "
"rules and procedures to give result to unpredictable outcomes."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1177
msgid ""
"The shifts between the primary domains are all phase shifts and need energy "
"to happen. The best metaphor in science is *latent heat*: energy is required "
"to achieve the phase shift from liquid to gas even though the temperature "
"does not change. + In organisations, phase shifts translate to culture "
"change: they need energy which is not used to expand or perform but to "
"dramatically change the nature of internal relationships."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1179
msgid ""
"To accommodate the disconnect between reality, perception and knowledge in "
"human systems, _order_ in Cynefin is divided into _clear_ and "
"_complicated_. In _clear_ the relationship between cause and effect is "
"self-evident and clear to any reasonable person; constraints are rigid or "
"fixed. In _complicated_ cause and effect exist but it requires expertise or "
"analysis to discover it; constraints are governing, giving confidence in the "
"boundary of expertise."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1181
msgid ""
"Further we have the _confused_ domain, which is the state of not knowing "
"which domain we are in and is frequently, but wrongly (sic) confused with "
"_chaos_. This is the where we start from in most crisis: a confused state "
"where the lines of action are not certain. _Confused_ is appreciated as "
"_A/C_ (_aporetic_/_confused_) of which more in the next section."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1185
msgid ""
"The \"transitional\" or *liminal line* in Cynefin indicates possible paths "
"of transition among domains. It is open at the top, closed at the bottom and "
"intersects all domains, except _clear_. The boundary between _clear_ and "
"_chaotic_ is a *catastrophic fold*, or cliff; a collapse where the "
"liminality in _clear_ is not visible and it is all too easy to walk blindly "
"off the cliff. In organisational terms, this relates to an excessive "
"confidence in the applicability of existing rigid procedures and constraints "
"which can easily bring to chaos when crisis occur. + The line creates "
"*liminal states* in _complex_ (still uncertain but transiting to "
"_complicated_), _chaos_ (the deliberate removal of effective constraints for "
"decision support and/or innovation), _complicated_ (where the analysis "
"method or type of expertise is in question) and _confusion_ itself which is "
"the area of aporia. To be unknowingly in the _confused_ domain is not "
"advisable and it is adjacent to the catastrophic fold for a reason. To be in "
"a state of confusion authentically, with knowledge of the state means that "
"*aporia* can be created to exit into any domain other than _clear_. + There "
"are different types of practice in each of the Cynefin domains and liminal "
"areas. In the _complex_ domain practice is *exaptive*, or focused on radical "
"re-purposing of existing capability. In the _complicated_ domain we apply "
"*good practice*, in _clear_ we have the only legitimate application of *best "
"practice*."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1187
msgid ""
"In the liminal area between complex and complicated practice is iterative in "
"nature, seeking to establish good practice through a phase shift and this "
"will require energy."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1189
msgid ""
"In _chaos_ practice is generally *novel*, either by accident, or in the "
"liminal area by design. In the liminal area of _confused_, practice is "
"*aporetic*, the deliberate creation of paradox and puzzlement to get people "
"to think differently. No type of practice is universal, the summary here is "
"the main focus for action."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1191
msgid ""
"Cynefin is at its heart a *decision support framework* that is based on the "
"principle of bounded applicability: there are few if any context free "
"solutions but many valid context specific ones. As such Cynefin is a "
"framework not a method, it is a way of determining what method or approach "
"we should adopt and critically when we should change it."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1193
msgid ""
"Movement between domains can take many forms. The most stable is a *constant "
"iteration between _complex_ and _complicated_* with some material being "
"consigned to _clear_ when there is sufficient stability to warrant it and "
"the shift is low risk. Occasionally there is a need to dip into the "
"*aporetic liminal area* from _complicated_ if pattern entrainment has set "
"in. The aporetic liminal area is the normal target for an exit from "
"involuntary _chaos_. There is also a dynamic which constantly moves from "
"_complexity_ through all liminal domains and then back again."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1195
msgid "More on the Cynefin framework at: youtube.com/watch?v=N7oz366X0-8"
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:1196
#, no-wrap
msgid "The Cynefin framework in a flow"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1199
msgid "A free-flow, organic interpretation of the Cynefin framework"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1201
msgid "Chaos as the place with no constraints nor boundaries"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1202
msgid ""
"Serendipituous encounters and dark constraints give light to the first "
"stable ideas."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1203
msgid ""
"Complexity as the place where several ideas interact in conversations that "
"generate scaffoldings. We can observe agents interacting according to three "
"paradigms: the triad (*3a*), the square (*3b*), the pentagon (*3c*)."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1204
msgid ""
"A paradigm (the triad in this case) becomes successful and creates a filter "
"that, from now on, will condition and influence the creation of new "
"structures."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1205
msgid ""
"Complication as the place where the paradigm is interpreted into several "
"possible outputs, all respecting and reinforcing the triad."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1206
msgid ""
"Clarity, where a set of rules starts to dominate and becomes the only "
"allowed structure."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1207
msgid ""
"Any living system has agents that still permeate the space but don't fit in "
"the mainstream narrative and structures."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1208
msgid ""
"The more the structure self-replicate, the more it acts as a rigid, "
"impermeable boundary. The increasing pressure on the structure will end up "
"breaking it catastrophically. The system will fall back into chaos."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1209
msgid ""
"Keeping the structure flexible and consciously removing some of the more "
"fixed and rigid boundaries allows us to drift back into complexity and "
"rediscuss the paradigm."
msgstr ""

#. type: Title ==
#: en.adoc:1210
#, no-wrap
msgid "Endnote"
msgstr ""

#. type: Positional ($2) AttributeList argument for style 'quote'
#: en.adoc:1212
#, no-wrap
msgid "Abraham Lincoln"
msgstr ""

#. type: Positional ($3) AttributeList argument for style 'quote'
#: en.adoc:1212
#, no-wrap
msgid "Annual Message to Congress December 1st 1862"
msgstr ""

#. type: quote
#: en.adoc:1217
msgid ""
"We can succeed only by concert. It is not \"can any of us imagine better?\" "
"but, \"can we all do better?\" The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate "
"to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty and we "
"must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, we must think anew and act "
"anew."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:1243
msgid ""
"Cynefin (pronounced cun-ev-in) is a Welsh word with no direct equivalent in "
"English. As a noun it is translated as habitat, as an adjective acquainted "
"or familiar, but dictionary definitions fail to do it justice. A better, and "
"more poetic, definition comes from the introduction to a collection of "
"paintings by Kyffin Williams, an artist whose use of oils creates a new "
"awareness of the mountains of his native land and their relationship to the "
"spirituality of its people: “It describes that relationship: the place of "
"your birth and of your upbringing, the environment in which you live and to "
"which you are naturally acclimatised.” (Sinclair 1998). It differs from the "
"Japanese concept of Ba, which is a “shared space for emerging relationships” "
"(Nonaka & Konno 1998) in that it links a community into its shared history – "
"or histories – in a way that paradoxically both limits the perception of "
"that community while enabling an instinctive and intuitive ability to adapt "
"to conditions of profound uncertainty.  In general, if a community is not "
"physically, temporally and spiritually rooted, then it is alienated from its "
"environment and will focus on survival rather than creativity and "
"collaboration."
msgstr ""

#. type: delimited block *
#: en.adoc:1247
msgid "Dave Snowden + Cynefin a Sense of Time and Place + Knowledge Horizons"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1251
msgid ""
"The quote from Lincoln used above is one of his most famous and featured in "
"Composer Copeland’s _American Portrait_. The speech was made one month "
"before signing the Emancipation Proclamation. + It contains some key "
"messages for anyone seeking to recover from a crisis at any level: _phia_ "
"(wisdom) and _prognosis_ (foresight), contrasting theoretical knowledge with "
"that obtained through practice, not to privilege one or the other but to "
"require both."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1253
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*The call is to both _think_ and to _act_ anew*. Any crisis involves a "
"considerable focus on action, but reflection is also needed and that needs "
"to be distributed into the wider community. In the Transcend section of this "
"handbook we identified a series of short and long term actions that create a "
"process of reflection within those involved in the crisis.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1255
msgid ""
"The need to *act in concert*, to work together, is key but that working "
"together recognises what, from a complexity science perspective, we would "
"call requisite diversity. We don’t want to homogenise but to *create "
"coherent heterogeneity*, or the ability to come together in common need for "
"common purpose without the loss of what made us distinctive in the first "
"place. At a very prosaic level think how fierce rivalry between local sports "
"clubs can be forgotten in the context of a national team."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1257
msgid ""
"It is *not about imagining a better future*, although there is nothing wrong "
"in that per se, *but it is about doing better*. Far too many change "
"initiatives in organisations and in governments end up with idealistic "
"statements about a desired future state which inevitably end up in "
"disappointment. *A vision of a future state should provide a sense of "
"direction but not a deterministic goal*. Once we understand complexity we "
"know that starting journeys with a sense of direction leaves us more open to "
"discovering novelty on those journeys, opportunities and threats that we "
"could not have imagined in advance."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1259
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*Key is that we create an organisation that has high levels of resilience, "
"defined here as the ability to survive with continuity of identity over "
"time*. This is a quality of systems that come through failure stronger "
"(called anti-fragile systems). However failure is not the only way in which "
"resilience can be built. One way to understand this is to think about the "
"difference between a sea wall and a salt marsh.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1261
msgid ""
"The sea wall is robust, it is a clear, rigid boundary that holds back the "
"tides. It drains the landward side and allows us to use it productively. All "
"is well and good until the design conditions are exceeded and the wall "
"breaks catastrophically. A salt marsh in contrast is less efficient in its "
"use of land but absorbs multiple indications flexing and changing over "
"time. The landscape may change but the identity is the same. When the "
"salt-marsh is saturated critically, it does not create a catastrophic "
"release as is the case when the sea wall breaks."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1263
#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*During conditions of uncertainty we need more salt-marshes and fewer sea "
"walls*; the idea of surviving with continuity of identity over time is "
"key. We are changed by context but we are not constantly starting "
"afresh. The sea wall is highly efficient, the salt-marsh is however more "
"effective in extreme conditions. A focus on efficiency has high utility to "
"the expense of variety and redundancy in the system and in consequence "
"reduced adaptive capacity. A balance is a key part of leadership. Of course "
"we may not be dealing with a single crisis, but a cascade or overlapping "
"series of crises each of which can damage resilience. But *we may increase "
"resilience if people can accept the often radical sacrifices needed by the "
"current situation as a mean to also reduce the impact of a crisis yet to "
"come*. The COVID crisis for example comes as the awareness of global warming "
"is growing, albeit later than any scientists wanted. The sacrifices made for "
"containing COVID demonstrate what is possible - it is the responsibility of "
"leadership to make the links and not allow a return to what was considered "
"normal.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1266
msgid ""
"While a crisis offers a real opportunity to make radical change, such a "
"desire needs to be treated with a healthy dose of pragmatic "
"realism. Behaviour in a crisis cannot sustain itself for long after the "
"crisis, or even within it if it goes on for too long. + Sudden novelty means "
"that humans will change behaviour in unexpected ways, but only for a period."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1268
msgid ""
"To take an example, in the COVID crisis governments world wide radically "
"reduced or removed bureaucracy to allow rapid decision making. That "
"reduction is not sustainable, but neither should we return to prior "
"practice. Operational people have learnt that things can be done more "
"effectively and faster but we should not seek to remove bureaucracy, rather "
"to modify it and adapt. Instead of radical swings of the pendulum we need to "
"allow a new stable position to emerge."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1270
msgid ""
"The realisation that *rules cannot cover all possible future states* is a "
"common aspect of emerging from a crisis but few put it into action. One "
"approach is to *define rules and when rules can be broken, but have a "
"control process* when this is necessary. The US Marines have a simple "
"policy. When the battlefield plan breaks down, soldiers follow three simple, "
"easily memorable heuristics or rules of thumb: capture the high ground; stay "
"in touch; keep moving. Such heuristics are measurable and provide a control "
"framework while allowing flexibility of response in rapidly changing "
"circumstances."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1272
msgid ""
"It mimics what we know about animal behaviour; the flocking behaviour or "
"birds can also be simulated using three simple rules: follow the next bird, "
"match speed, avoid collision. Add a further rule about leadership swapping "
"on a time interval and we get the V-shape of geese flying. *Simple rules "
"give rise to complex behaviour which can be managed and monitored in "
"consequence*. Napoleon’s famous order march to the sound of the guns "
"provided a self organising principle, but also one in which multiple "
"commanders could predict the behaviour of others without the need for direct "
"orders or communication lags. If all the other active agents are using a "
"common set of heuristics then the system as a whole can align around a "
"common purpose much faster."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1278
msgid ""
"It is also important to emphasise *the importance of boundaries and boundary "
"crossing* for human decision. As a species we are not good at gradients, we "
"tend to settle where we are most comfortable. + The boundary transition "
"between rules and heuristics is a boundary between complicated and complex "
"in Cynefin terms and the move across it needs to be ritualised to ensure the "
"behaviour change. + Boundary rituals are important not just for the local "
"decision maker, but for the wider community in which their action will be "
"seen and judged. + *Capturing, codifying and linking the propagation of "
"heuristics to teaching stories is a key way in which organisations can "
"create resilience post crisis*. + This also links into another aspect of "
"military learning that is insufficiently used in government and commercial "
"organisations alike, namely the role of practice. Military units practice "
"more than they fight. In the context of non-military organisations, while "
"practice is possible, it is not viable at military levels. So instead we "
"have to create operational capability and embedded networks that embody "
"aspects of day to day organisation whose nature and use can rapidly be "
"triggered as is into crisis management. This is a design issue and one that "
"is not difficult to do, certainly easier to put in place in the immediate "
"aftermath of a crisis when people can see the need."
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
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#, no-wrap
msgid ""
"*So for decision support we talk about creating networks for ordinary "
"purposes that can be activated for extraordinary needs*. The section on how "
"to create a human sensor network outlines some principles of how to do "
"this. Having multiple perspectives available in real time to decision makers "
"is key to decision making in a crisis but also has utility on a day to day "
"basis. +\n"
"Finally one key aspect of understanding *complexity is that it is path "
"dependent*, we cannot forget our history even if we wish to transcend "
"it. The basic framing of the word Cynefin in Welsh is a sense of living in a "
"flow of meaning. It has been compared to the German Heimat and the Maori "
"turangawaewae, meaning a place to stand. But the Welsh equivalent of those "
"words, which have a sense of looking to a place is hiaeth, a feeling of "
"longing for a home that ever was and a bond which persists over time Cynefin "
"as a concept recognises the nature of the past, but does not seek to return "
"to it, but to continue changed.\n"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1283
msgid ""
"Recognising that we are formed by our multiple pasts, but also by our "
"imagined futures contains the idea of transcending through learning and "
"education. In the aftermath of a crisis we have, almost uniquely a shared "
"immediate past that can trigger change but we need to seize the day and "
"avoid the danger of just falling back to the practices which allowed the "
"crisis to emerge in the first place. Here we have to be very careful to, in "
"the words of Lincoln combine words with actions. A final quote from T S "
"Eilot summaries this well:"
msgstr ""

#. type: Plain text
#: en.adoc:1291
msgid ""
"Nothing pleases people more than to go on thinking what they have always "
"thought, and at the same time imagine that they are thinking something new "
"and daring: it combines the advantage of security and the delight of "
"adventure."
msgstr ""