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@unpublished{FairfieldBayes2015,
author = {Tasha Fairfield and Andrew Charman},
title = {Formal Bayesian process tracing: guidelines, opportunities, and caveats},
note = {Unpublished manuscript},
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@incollection{Waldner2015completeness,
author = {Waldner, David},
title = {What Makes Process Tracing Good? Causal Mechanisms, Causal Inference, and the Completeness Standard in Comparative Politics},
booktitle = {Process Tracing: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
year = 2015,
editor = {Bennett, Andrew and Checkel, Jeffrey},
pages = {126--52},
address = {New York}
}
@incollection{BennettAppendix,
address = {New York},
author = {Bennett, Andrew},
booktitle = {Process Tracing: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool},
citeulike-article-id = {8062952},
comment = {1110b},
editor = {Bennett, Andrew and Checkel, Jeffrey},
pages = {},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {Appendix},
year = {2015}
}
@incollection{BennettCheckel2015PT,
author = {Bennett, Andrew and Checkel, Jeffrey},
title = {Process Tracing: From Philosophical Roots to Best Practices},
booktitle = {Process Tracing: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
year = 2015,
editor = {Bennett, Andrew and Checkel, Jeffrey},
pages = {3--37},
address = {New York}
}
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title={Understanding process tracing},
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title={Causes and explanations: A structural-model approach. Part I: Causes},
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volume={76},
number={1},
year={2017},
publisher={Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA~…}
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title={Causes and explanations: A structural-model approach. Part II: Explanations},
author={Halpern, Joseph Y and Pearl, Judea},
journal={The British journal for the philosophy of science},
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title={Sources of leverage in causal inference: Toward an alternative view of methodology},
author={Collier, David and Brady, Henry E and Seawright, Jason},
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publisher={Taylor \& Francis}
}
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title={Bayesian minimum mean-square error estimation for classification error—Part I: Definition and the Bayesian MMSE error estimator for discrete classification},
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volume={33},
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}
@article{howard2005influence,
title={Influence diagrams},
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journal={Decision Analysis},
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publisher={INFORMS}
}
@article{heckerman1991toward,
title={Toward normative expert systems: The Pathfinder project},
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@article{hernan2006instruments,
title={Instruments for causal inference: an epidemiologist's dream?},
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year={2006},
publisher={LWW}
}
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title={Conditional dependence in probabilistic networks},
author={Bouckaert, Remco R},
booktitle={Selecting Models from Data},
pages={101--111},
year={1994},
publisher={Springer}
}
@book{geiger1987non,
title={The non-axiomatizability of dependencies in directed acyclic graphs},
author={Geiger, Dan},
year={1987},
publisher={University of California (Los Angeles). Computer Science Department}
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@book{pearl1985graphoids,
title={Graphoids: A graph-based logic for reasoning about relevance relations},
author={Pearl, Judea and Paz, Azaria},
year={1985},
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}
@article{white2009settable,
title={Settable systems: an extension of Pearl's causal model with optimization, equilibrium, and learning},
author={White, Halbert and Chalak, Karim},
journal={Journal of Machine Learning Research},
volume={10},
number={Aug},
pages={1759--1799},
year={2009}
}
@book{halpern2016actual,
title={Actual causality},
author={Halpern, Joseph Y},
year={2016},
publisher={MIT Press}
}
@article{yamamoto2012understanding,
title={Understanding the past: Statistical analysis of causal attribution},
author={Yamamoto, Teppei},
journal={American Journal of Political Science},
volume={56},
number={1},
pages={237--256},
year={2012},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@book{koller2009probabilistic,
title={Probabilistic graphical models: principles and techniques},
author={Koller, Daphne and Friedman, Nir},
year={2009},
publisher={MIT press}
}
@article{halpern2005causes,
title={Causes and explanations: A structural-model approach. Part I: Causes},
author={Halpern, Joseph Y and Pearl, Judea},
journal={The British journal for the philosophy of science},
volume={56},
number={4},
pages={843--887},
year={2005},
publisher={Br Soc Philosophy Sci}
}
@article{pearl1995causal,
title={Causal diagrams for empirical research},
author={Pearl, Judea},
journal={Biometrika},
volume={82},
number={4},
pages={669--688},
year={1995},
publisher={Biometrika Trust}
}
@article{galles1998axiomatic,
title={An axiomatic characterization of causal counterfactuals},
author={Galles, David and Pearl, Judea},
journal={Foundations of Science},
volume={3},
number={1},
pages={151--182},
year={1998},
publisher={Springer}
}
@article{huber2013structural,
title={Structural equations and beyond},
author={Huber, Franz},
journal={The Review of Symbolic Logic},
volume={6},
number={04},
pages={709--732},
year={2013},
publisher={Cambridge Univ Press}
}
@inproceedings{darwiche1994symbolic,
title={Symbolic causal networks},
author={Darwiche, Adnan and Pearl, Judea},
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pages={238--244},
year={1994}
}
@book{pearl1987logic,
title={The logic of representing dependencies by directed graphs},
author={Pearl, Judea and Verma, Thomas},
year={1987},
publisher={University of California (Los Angeles). Computer Science Department}
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@article{koller2003multi,
title={Multi-agent influence diagrams for representing and solving games},
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pages={181--221},
year={2003},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
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@techreport{pearl2012causal,
title={The causal foundations of structural equation modeling},
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@article{huber2013theory,
title={Is Theory Getting Lost in the ‘Identification Revolution’?},
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pages={2013},
year={2013}
}
@article{garcia2015graphical,
title={A graphical approximation to generalization: Definitions and diagrams},
author={Garc{\'\i}a, Fernando Martel and Wantchekon, Leonard},
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volume={6},
number={1},
pages={71--86},
year={2015}
}
@techreport{glynn2007non,
title={Non-parametric Mechanisms and Causal Modeling},
author={Glynn, Adam and Quinn, Kevin},
year={2007},
institution={working paper}
}
@article{hall2004two,
title={Two concepts of causation},
author={Hall, Ned},
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pages={225--276},
year={2004},
publisher={Cambridge, MA: MIT Press}
}
@article{hausman1999independence,
title={Independence, invariance and the causal Markov condition},
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year={1999},
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}
@article{dawid2002influence,
title={Influence diagrams for causal modelling and inference},
author={Dawid, A Philip},
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pages={161--189},
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publisher={Wiley Online Library}
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@article{gabry2019visualization,
title={Visualization in Bayesian workflow},
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volume={182},
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pages={389--402},
year={2019},
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}
@book{bennett2015process,
title={Process tracing},
author={Bennett, Andrew and Checkel, Jeffrey T},
year={2015},
publisher={Cambridge University Press}
}
@article{humphreys2015mixing,
title={Mixing Methods: A Bayesian Approach},
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}
@book{bennett2014process,
title={Process tracing},
author={Bennett, Andrew and Checkel, Jeffrey T},
year={2015},
address={New York},
publisher={Cambridge University Press}
}
@book{laplace1901philosophical,
title={A philosophical essay on probabilities},
author={Laplace, Pierre-Simon},
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}
@book{beachpedersen2013process,
title={Process-Tracing Methods: Foundations and Guidelines},
author={Beach, Derek and Pedersen, Rasmus Brun},
year={2013},
address={Ann Arbor, MI},
publisher={University of Michigan Press}
}
@book{przeworski1970logic,
title={The logic of comparative social inquiry},
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@book{Van-Evera:1997,
abstract = {For the last few years, Stephen Van Evera has greeted new graduate students at MIT with a commonsense introduction to qualitative methods in the social sciences. His helpful hints, always warmly received, grew from a handful of memos to an underground classic primer. That primer has now evolved into a book of how-to information about graduate study, which is essential reading for graduate students and undergraduates in political science, sociology, anthropology, economics, and history--and for their advisers.},
added-at = {2010-03-02T17:25:53.000+0100},
address = {Ithaca, NY},
author = {Van Evera, Stephen},
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bdsk-url-1 = {http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/cup_detail.taf?ti_id=3026},
biburl = {http://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/20e65641b50da80274fe724cc44f2bbb8/jrennstich},
booktitle = {Guide to Methods for Students of Political Science},
date-modified = {2010-02-28 21:03:37 -0500},
interhash = {32083a2d64ef274535974a1d5957f8d8},
intrahash = {0e65641b50da80274fe724cc44f2bbb8},
keywords = {methodology political-science},
publisher = {Cornell University Press},
rating = {5},
read = {No},
timestamp = {2010-03-02T17:25:53.000+0100},
title = {Guide to methods for students of political science},
year = 1997
}
@incollection{collier2004sources,
title={Sources of leverage in causal inference: Toward an alternative view of methodology},
author={Collier, David and Brady, Henry E and Seawright, Jason},
booktitle={Rethinking social inquiry: Diverse tools, shared standards},
pages={229--66},
year={2004},
publisher={Lanham, MD: Rowman \& Littlefield},
editor = {Collier, David and Brady, Henry E},
}
@incollection{BennettBayes,
address = {Oxford, UK},
author = {Bennett, Andrew},
booktitle = {The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology},
citeulike-article-id = {8062952},
comment = {1110b},
editor = {Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. and Brady, Henry E. and Collier, David},
keywords = {bayes, case\_study, degrees\_of\_freedom, methodology, overdetermination, process\_tracing},
pages = {702--721},
posted-at = {2010-10-21 11:17:32},
priority = {0},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
title = {Process Tracing. A Bayesian Perspective},
year = {2008}
}
@book{gardner1961second,
title={The second Scientific American book of mathematical puzzles and diversions},
author={Gardner, Martin},
year={1961},
publisher={Simon and Schuster New York}
}
@book{paul2013causation,
title={Causation: A user's guide},
author={Paul, Laurie Ann and Hall, Edward Jonathan},
year={2013},