From 2336f1b555420bf1934e9ddc23063d81ccac5826 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: David Bailey <davidbailey@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Fri, 9 Jun 2017 10:30:30 +0200
Subject: [PATCH] Create datasetRegressionExample.py

---
 datasetRegressionExample.py | 62 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 1 file changed, 62 insertions(+)
 create mode 100644 datasetRegressionExample.py

diff --git a/datasetRegressionExample.py b/datasetRegressionExample.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..949beb1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/datasetRegressionExample.py
@@ -0,0 +1,62 @@
+import pandas
+from scipy import optimize
+from sklearn import linear_model
+from math import exp, factorial
+from scipy.stats import poisson
+from statsmodels.api import OLS
+from statsmodels.discrete.discrete_model import Poisson
+from statsmodels.tools import add_constant
+
+df = pandas.read_csv('datasetRegressionExample.csv')
+exposure = lambda row: row['AADT'] * row['L'] * 365
+crash_rate = lambda row: row['Crashes'] / row['exposure'] * 1000000
+
+yes_shoulder = df[df['shoulder'] == 1].sum()
+no_shoulder = df[df['shoulder'] == 0].sum()
+
+# df = df.append(yes_shoulder, ignore_index=True)
+# df = df.append(no_shoulder, ignore_index=True)
+
+df['exposure'] = df.apply(exposure, axis=1)
+df['crash_rate'] = df.apply(crash_rate, axis=1)
+
+def estimator(x, row_in='Crashes'):
+  estimated = lambda row: x[0] + x[1] * row['AADT'] + x[2] * row['L']
+  df['estimated'] = df.apply(estimated, axis=1)
+  difference = lambda row: row[row_in] - row['estimated']
+  df['difference'] = df.apply(difference, axis=1)
+  square = lambda row: row**2
+  sum_of_squares = df['difference'].apply(square).sum()
+  return(sum_of_squares)
+
+x0 = [-20, .0008, 1.1]
+estimator(x0)
+optimize.minimize(estimator, x0, method='nelder-mead', options={'xtol': 1e-8, 'disp': True})
+
+clf = linear_model.LinearRegression()
+x = df[['AADT', 'L']].as_matrix()
+y = df['Crashes']
+clf.fit(x, y)
+clf.coef_
+clf.intercept_
+
+model = OLS(y, add_constant(x))
+model_fit = model.fit()
+model_fit.summary()
+
+def estimator(x, row_in='Crashes'):
+  estimated = lambda row: exp(x[0] + x[1] * row['AADT'] + x[2] * row['L'])
+  df['estimated'] = df.apply(estimated, axis=1)
+  #probability = lambda row: (row['estimated']**row[row_in] * exp(-row['estimated'])) / factorial(row[row_in])
+  probability = lambda row: poisson.pmf(row[row_in], row['estimated'])
+  df['probability'] = df.apply(probability, axis=1)
+  product = df['probability'].product()
+  return(-product)
+
+x0 = [1.6, .0000026, .032]
+estimator(x0)
+optimize.minimize(estimator, x0, method='nelder-mead', options={'xtol': 1e-8, 'disp': True})
+
+model = Poisson(y.as_matrix().transpose(), add_constant(x))
+model_fit = model.fit(start_params=x0)
+model_fit.summary()