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.DS_Store

readme.md

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# TwinMarket: A Scalable Behavioral and Social Simulation for Financial Markets
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<img src="./src/TwinMarket.jpg" alt="Logo" >
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## Overview
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**TwinMarket** is a novel multi-agent framework designed to simulate socio-economic systems using large language models (LLMs). The framework focuses on modeling individual investor behaviors and their interactions within a simulated stock market environment. By leveraging the **Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI)** framework, TwinMarket captures the cognitive processes of agents, enabling the study of emergent phenomena such as financial bubbles, recessions, and market volatility.
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The project aims to bridge the gap between micro-level individual decision-making and macro-level collective market dynamics, providing insights into how individual actions aggregate to form complex socio-economic patterns.
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## Key Features
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1. **Real-World Alignment**: The framework is grounded in established behavioral theories and calibrated with real-world data, ensuring realistic human behavior modeling.
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2. **Dynamic Interaction Modeling**: TwinMarket captures diverse human behaviors and their interactions, particularly in the context of information propagation and social influence.
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3. **Scalable Market Simulations**: The framework supports large-scale simulations, allowing researchers to analyze the impact of group size and interaction complexity on market behavior.
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## Framework Components
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### Micro-Level Simulation: Individual Behaviors
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- **BDI Framework**: Agents are modeled using the **Belief-Desire-Intention** framework, which structures their decision-making processes.
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- **Behavioral Biases**: Agents exhibit various behavioral biases such as overconfidence, loss aversion, and herding behavior, reflecting real-world investor psychology.
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### Macro-Level Simulation: Social Interactions
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- **Social Network Construction**: Agents interact within a dynamic social network, where connections are based on trading behavior similarity.
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- **Information Propagation**: The framework models how information spreads through the network, leading to phenomena like opinion polarization and echo chambers.
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### Data Sources
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![1738736488423](./src/data.png)
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- **Real-World Data**: TwinMarket integrates real user profiles, transaction details, stock data, and news articles to create a realistic simulation environment.
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- **Initial User Profiles**: User profiles are generated using real transaction data from platforms like Xueqiu, ensuring diversity in agent behavior.
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## Experimental Results
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TwinMarket successfully replicates key stylized facts of financial markets, including:
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- **Fat-tailed return distributions**
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- **Volatility clustering**
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- **Leverage effects**
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- **Volume-return relationships**
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The framework also demonstrates the emergence of group behaviors, such as self-fulfilling prophecies and information cascades, which are difficult to capture using traditional agent-based models.
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## Scalability
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TwinMarket is designed to scale to large populations, with simulations involving up to 1,000 agents. The framework maintains realistic market dynamics even at larger scales, providing a robust platform for studying complex socio-economic systems.
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## How to Cite
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If you use TwinMarket in your research, please cite the following paper:
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```bibtex
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@misc{yang2025twinmarketscalablebehavioralsocialsimulation,
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title={TwinMarket: A Scalable Behavioral and SocialSimulation for Financial Markets},
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author={Yuzhe Yang and Yifei Zhang and Minghao Wu and Kaidi Zhang and Yunmiao Zhang and Honghai Yu and Yan Hu and Benyou Wang},
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year={2025},
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eprint={2502.01506},
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archivePrefix={arXiv},
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primaryClass={cs.CE},
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url={https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.01506},
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}
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```

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