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| 1 | +# TwinMarket: A Scalable Behavioral and Social Simulation for Financial Markets |
| 2 | + |
| 3 | +<img src="./src/TwinMarket.jpg" alt="Logo" > |
| 4 | + |
| 5 | +## Overview |
| 6 | +**TwinMarket** is a novel multi-agent framework designed to simulate socio-economic systems using large language models (LLMs). The framework focuses on modeling individual investor behaviors and their interactions within a simulated stock market environment. By leveraging the **Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI)** framework, TwinMarket captures the cognitive processes of agents, enabling the study of emergent phenomena such as financial bubbles, recessions, and market volatility. |
| 7 | + |
| 8 | +The project aims to bridge the gap between micro-level individual decision-making and macro-level collective market dynamics, providing insights into how individual actions aggregate to form complex socio-economic patterns. |
| 9 | + |
| 10 | +## Key Features |
| 11 | +1. **Real-World Alignment**: The framework is grounded in established behavioral theories and calibrated with real-world data, ensuring realistic human behavior modeling. |
| 12 | +2. **Dynamic Interaction Modeling**: TwinMarket captures diverse human behaviors and their interactions, particularly in the context of information propagation and social influence. |
| 13 | +3. **Scalable Market Simulations**: The framework supports large-scale simulations, allowing researchers to analyze the impact of group size and interaction complexity on market behavior. |
| 14 | + |
| 15 | +## Framework Components |
| 16 | +### Micro-Level Simulation: Individual Behaviors |
| 17 | +- **BDI Framework**: Agents are modeled using the **Belief-Desire-Intention** framework, which structures their decision-making processes. |
| 18 | +- **Behavioral Biases**: Agents exhibit various behavioral biases such as overconfidence, loss aversion, and herding behavior, reflecting real-world investor psychology. |
| 19 | + |
| 20 | +### Macro-Level Simulation: Social Interactions |
| 21 | +- **Social Network Construction**: Agents interact within a dynamic social network, where connections are based on trading behavior similarity. |
| 22 | +- **Information Propagation**: The framework models how information spreads through the network, leading to phenomena like opinion polarization and echo chambers. |
| 23 | + |
| 24 | +### Data Sources |
| 25 | + |
| 26 | + |
| 27 | + |
| 28 | +- **Real-World Data**: TwinMarket integrates real user profiles, transaction details, stock data, and news articles to create a realistic simulation environment. |
| 29 | +- **Initial User Profiles**: User profiles are generated using real transaction data from platforms like Xueqiu, ensuring diversity in agent behavior. |
| 30 | + |
| 31 | +## Experimental Results |
| 32 | +TwinMarket successfully replicates key stylized facts of financial markets, including: |
| 33 | +- **Fat-tailed return distributions** |
| 34 | +- **Volatility clustering** |
| 35 | +- **Leverage effects** |
| 36 | +- **Volume-return relationships** |
| 37 | + |
| 38 | +The framework also demonstrates the emergence of group behaviors, such as self-fulfilling prophecies and information cascades, which are difficult to capture using traditional agent-based models. |
| 39 | + |
| 40 | +## Scalability |
| 41 | +TwinMarket is designed to scale to large populations, with simulations involving up to 1,000 agents. The framework maintains realistic market dynamics even at larger scales, providing a robust platform for studying complex socio-economic systems. |
| 42 | + |
| 43 | +## How to Cite |
| 44 | +If you use TwinMarket in your research, please cite the following paper: |
| 45 | + |
| 46 | +```bibtex |
| 47 | +@misc{yang2025twinmarketscalablebehavioralsocialsimulation, |
| 48 | + title={TwinMarket: A Scalable Behavioral and SocialSimulation for Financial Markets}, |
| 49 | + author={Yuzhe Yang and Yifei Zhang and Minghao Wu and Kaidi Zhang and Yunmiao Zhang and Honghai Yu and Yan Hu and Benyou Wang}, |
| 50 | + year={2025}, |
| 51 | + eprint={2502.01506}, |
| 52 | + archivePrefix={arXiv}, |
| 53 | + primaryClass={cs.CE}, |
| 54 | + url={https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.01506}, |
| 55 | +} |
| 56 | +``` |
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